24th Screen Actors Guild Award Final Predictions

We’re getting closer and closer to the actual Oscar race, which means that events like the Screen Actors Guild awards are destined to come along and shake up the race in events we can’t foresee. With the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards matching up four for four in terms of acting nominations, the SAG (which actually shares voters with the Academy) will tell us things that the others cannot. Will this be the event to solidify a frontrunner? Or are we destined for a truly exciting, memorable race on Oscar night, where anyone can win? Either way, I have some predictions below.

Let’s start with Television today, because I feel like mixing things up, and I want to save the big awards for last. After a long year of fairly predictable television awards, don’t expect much of a shock. Everything here will go exactly as you expect, with the races narrowed down to the frontrunner and the upset choice. For example, the popular Lily Tomlin could win Best Actress in a Comedy, but considering Julia Louis-Dreyfus is fun, gives good speeches, had a great season, and just beat cancer, expect her to win. As for Best Actor in a Comedy: while William H. Macy could win a third time, or Aziz Ansari could be the first person of color to win this award (ballots were due prior to this past week), it is hard to see anyone except Anthony Anderson win here. As for the Drama categories, don’t expect any upsets: Sterling K. Brown and Elisabeth Moss are the favorites for a reason, and while Claire Foy and David Harbour are both popular with the group, expect them to christen the new blood. And then there’s the Miniseries/TV Movie categories. The frontrunners here, for many reasons, are Nicole Kidman and Alexander Skarsgård. It is hard to go against that. However, I’m going to, for these reasons. First, Skarsgård. Big Little Lies is a show about the women, and while Skarsgård does give an interesting portrayal as the seemingly perfect lawyer husband who has a penchant for violence, it isn’t a very meaty role. Robert De Niro, meanwhile, has never won a SAG Award despite being the greatest living actor (maybe, if you don’t count most of his last fifteen or so years), is supposedly great in The Wizard of Lies, and has given a few speeches recently that may have won over a certain sect of the voting branch. I’m expecting him to walk away with that statue. As for Kidman, she has won every award leading up to this point. If you were betting men, I would lay down money on her. However, there’s one thing that’s bothering me: she’s up against Reese Witherspoon and Laura Dern for the same show. That’s going to split the vote in a very dangerous fashion, especially involving Dern’s equally beloved performance. That could make room for another beloved performance that hasn’t been able to win an outright vote: Jessica Lange in Feud. The actors in particular love actors playing actors, and Lange is remarkable in the role. So expect her to walk away with the award. And as for the Ensemble Awards (the top prizes here), don’t expect too much to shock you. While it is possible Stranger Things or Orange is the New Black could repeat here, expect new blood The Handmaid’s Tale and GLOW (made by the writers of Orange) to ride their truly remarkable, female-centric, multiracial casts to the stage (that’s pretty much a triple threat considering what Hollywood is facing right now). And Game of Thrones will walk home with one award, for Best Stunt Ensemble.

As for Film, I think you can divide these into two categories: the races that are over, and the races that are just beginning. Let’s start with the races that are just beginning. We all thought Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress were over, because Willem Dafoe and Laurie Metcalf were winning critics awards, are classic modern Hollywood figures, and, well, as far as I’m concerned, they gave the two best performances of the year. So you can imagine the shock when the first two major awards went to Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney. Now, this isn’t quite disappointing: both actors are very good in their roles, and both are considered the most well-liked actors in Hollywood. However, it has thrown a wrench into things. Basically, what happens tomorrow will be a deciding factor. If Rockwell and Janney win again, the race is over, and they are taking home the Oscars. However, should Dafoe and Metcalf get on the board with a major guild (as I am currently predicting), well then now we have a race. We will be entering the Oscars with two split categories that could go either way, and things will actually be interesting for once. I’m hoping for that, and I think it will be that, so my predictions here are Dafoe and Metcalf. Meanwhile, the lead categories are fairly predictable (probably). Best Male Actor is kind of a done deal, despite the fact that Film Twitter is very passionately stumping for Timothée Chalamet. Gary Oldman is a force of nature in Darkest Hour, he objectively gives the best performance of the year, and he’s a Hollywood legend. Expect him to win the SAG tomorrow night on his way to the Oscar. Meanwhile, Best Actress is simple, unless it isn’t. Frances McDormand has won all of the big awards leading up to tonight, as well as a handful of guild awards. She should pick up the SAG on the way to the Oscar. However, this is also where the very competitive Best Actress race could get interesting. This is where we will find out how popular Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri actually is, especially when compared to the equally remarkable performances of Sally Hawkins, Margot Robbie, and especially Saoirse Ronan. I think Ronan has the best chance of upsetting McDormand, and we shall see. However, at the moment, I see no reason to vote against the common logic that dictates that McDormand will take home this award. As for Ensemble, this should be fairly pedestrian predicting. While it is possible that Lady Bird takes home the prize, Three Billboards unequivocally has the best ensemble of the year, and should win here, causing many critics and pundits to consider it the frontrunner for Best Picture (I’ll talk about that more on Monday). The Stunt category is fairly competitive this year, as each team is remarkable, but I think I’m going to go with Dunkirk, as I doubt the SAG Awards want to send that film out empty handed, considering they almost completely snubbed its ensemble.

Well, that settles that. Tune in tomorrow to see how right or wrong I am, and to see the first meaningful race for the Academy Awards! You can see my full list of predictions below, and the SAG Awards will be held on TNT and TBS tomorrow at 8:00 pm. I will be live blogging the winners. See you then!


Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

  • Timothée Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
  • James Franco-The Disaster Artist
  • Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
  • Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour   T
  • Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

  • Judi Dench-Victoria and Abdul
  • Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri   T
  • Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird


Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Steve Carell-Battle of the Sexes
  • Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project   T
  • Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
  • Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
  • Hong Chau-Downsizing
  • Holly Hunter-The Big Sick
  • Allison Janney-I, Tonya
  • Laurie Metcalfe-Lady Bird   T

Best Cast in a Motion Picture

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Mudbound
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri   T

Best Stunt Ensemble

  • Baby Driver
  • Dunkirk   T
  • Logan
  • War of the Planet of the Apes
  • Wonder Woman


Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Benedict Cumberbatch-Sherlock: The Lying Detective
  • Jeff Daniels-Godless
  • Robert De Niro-The Wizard of Lies   T
  • Geoffrey Rush-Genius
  • Alexander Skarsgård-Big Little Lies

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Laura Dern-Big Little Lies
  • Nicole Kidman-Big Little Lies
  • Jessica Lange-Feud   T
  • Susan Sarandon-Feud
  • Reese Witherspoon-Big Little Lies

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Anthony Anderson-black-ish   T
  • Aziz Ansari-Master of None
  • Larry David-Curb Your Enthusiasm
  • Sean Hayes-Will and Grace
  • William H. Macy-Shameless
  • Marc Maron-GLOW

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Uzo Aduba-Orange is the New Black
  • Alison Brie-GLOW
  • Jane Fonda-Grace and Frankie
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep   T
  • Lily Tomlin-Grace and Frankie

Best Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jason Bateman-Ozark
  • Sterling K. Brown-This Is Us   T
  • Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
  • David Harbour-Stranger Things
  • Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul

Best Actress in a Drama Series

  • Millie Bobby Brown-Stranger Things
  • Claire Foy-The Crown
  • Laura Linney-Ozark
  • Elisabeth Moss-The Handmaid’s Tale   T
  • Robin Wright-House of Cards

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

  • The Crown
  • Game of Thrones
  • The Handmaid’s Tale   T
  • Stranger Things
  • This Is Us

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

  • Black-ish
  • Curb Your Enthusiasm
  • GLOW   T
  • Orange is the New Black
  • Veep

Best Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

  • Game of Thrones   T
  • GLOW
  • Homeland
  • Stranger Things
  • The Walking Dead

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