24th Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Ladies and gentlemen, we have an Oscar race! The 24th Screen Actors Guild Awards have come down the line, and while Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has received the most nominations (four), we can narrow the race for Best Picture down to two highly deserving films that will likely win Best Picture: Get Out and Lady Bird.

However, I’m getting ahead of myself at the moment. Let’s break down the SAG Award nominations for film. While the categories each played out fairly predictably, there was at least one curveball in each race, shaking things up to their core. Take Best Actor, for instance. Yes, Gary Oldman and Timothée Chalamet both appeared here, and James Franco officially cemented himself as a lock for Best Actor for his portrayal of Tommy Wiseau, SAG threw in two curveballs, to keep things interesting. Instead of filling those last two spots with Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Hanks, or Jake Gyllenhaal, they ended up shaking things to their core by nominating Denzel Washington (not too big a shock) and Daniel Kaluuya (hooooooollllly sh*t) for Get Out. That last nomination in particular is huge for a whole lot of reasons, which we’ll explore below. Similarly to Hanks, Meryl Streep failed to receive a nomination for her work on The Post either, allowing the four frontrunners and Judi Dench to sneak in and earn a nomination. This not only makes Margot Robbie one of the frontrunners for Best Actress, but means that The Post was completely shut out, including from Best Ensemble. Unlike Phantom Thread and Day-Lewis, the film was, in fact, seen by the Guild, and they chose not to nominate it anyway, despite having a large branch of journalists in their midst. This is a killing blow to The Post’s Oscar chances, and while Meryl is still a lock, it may affect elsewhere in the Academy’s nominations. Supporting Actor featured three major contenders in Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell, and Richard Jenkins, but added the major twists of no nomination for Armie Hammer, yet one for Steve Carell in Battle of the Sexes (good, but far from the best thing in that movie. Where’s Emma Stone?). Furthermore, Woody Harrelson received a nomination for his performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, both proving the film is still an Oscar contender in spite of everything in the early season and Harrelson’s role is resonating with people (I think I may have liked him more than Rockwell). And while there are zero surprises in Best Supporting Actress, I am kind of surprised that the singer-hating SAG went with Mary J. Blige over, say, Octavia Spencer. I dunno, maybe both will get in at the Oscars and work to prevent another #OscarsSoWhite with Hong Chau.

However, the real surprises here come in Best Ensemble. Best Ensemble is arguably the most important precursor to the Oscars, as no film since Braveheart (the very first year the award was given) has won Best Picture without being nominated for Best Ensemble. The lack of a nomination for La La Land ended up being the straw that broke the camel’s back in the Oscar race last year. This means that Best Picture will most likely be won by one of five films: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, Mudbound, and Three Billboards. That’s right – no The Post, no Call Me By Your Name, no Dunkirk, and no The Shape of Water. It is almost impossible for any of these films to win Best Picture now. However, let’s take things a step further by eliminating the films that have received little fanfare and will use this nomination as their win – The Big Sick (great) and Mudbound (great ensemble). This leaves us with only three films that could potentially win Best Picture: Three Billboards (the frontrunner for Ensemble), Lady Bird, and Get Out. And if you look at the stats from the NBR and other critics’ awards, you can assume that Three Billboards, while not out, has some massive hurdles to clear if it wants to win Best Picture. This leaves only two films in contention for Best Picture: Lady Bird and Get Out. Lay your bets now people: I’m calling this a two-horse race. Don’t @ me.

On television, things played out the way you’d expect. For example, Big Little Lies dominated with four nominations, including a shocking-yet-unsurprising three in Best Actress in a Limited Series, and one unexpected-but-possible nomination for Alexander Skarsgård in Best Actor. The rest played out mostly as expected, with the only real surprise being the tie for Best Actor – Comedy to make room for Marc Maron. Hell, things were so unsurprising that I managed to go 5/5 in Best Actor – Drama Series, as well as predict the upset in Best Drama. I suppose it’s worth noting how much the SAGs loved GLOW, and it’s always nice to see Curb Your Enthusiasm make a return, but otherwise I don’t see any evidence that things are going to play out any which way but expected.

The 24th Screen Actors Guild Awards will be held on January 21st, 2018, and will be hosted by Kristen Bell (and here’s hoping the charming announcers Niecy Nash and Olivia Munn will be in attendance). You can see the full list of nominees below, and I will have some predictions up for you in the upcoming weeks, both for SAG and for the Oscars.

Film

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

  • Timothée Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
  • James Franco-The Disaster Artist
  • Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
  • Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

  • Judi Dench-Victoria and Abdul
  • Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird 

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Steve Carell-Battle of the Sexes
  • Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
  • Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
  • Hong Chau-Downsizing
  • Holly Hunter-The Big Sick
  • Allison Janney-I, Tonya
  • Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird 

Best Cast in a Motion Picture

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Mudbound
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Stunt Ensemble

  • Baby Driver
  • Dunkirk
  • Logan
  • War of the Planet of the Apes
  • Wonder Woman

Television

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Benedict Cumberbatch-Sherlock: The Lying Detective
  • Jeff Daniels-Godless
  • Robert De Niro-The Wizard of Oz
  • Geoffrey Rush-Genius
  • Alexander Skarsgård-Big Little Lies

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Laura Dern-Big Little Lies
  • Nicole Kidman-Big Little Lies
  • Jessica Lange-Feud
  • Susan Sarandon-Feud
  • Reese Witherspoon-Big Little Lies

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Anthony Anderson-black-ish
  • Aziz Ansari-Master of None
  • Larry David-Curb Your Enthusiasm
  • Sean Hayes-Will and Grace
  • William H. Macy-Shameless
  • Marc Maron-GLOW

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Uzo Aduba-Orange is the New Black
  • Alison Brie-GLOW
  • Jane Fonda-Grace and Frankie
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep
  • Lily Tomlin-Grace and Frankie

Best Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jason Bateman-Ozark
  • Sterling K. Brown-This Is Us
  • Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
  • David Harbour-Stranger Things
  • Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul

Best Actress in a Drama Series

  • Millie Bobby Brown-Stranger Things
  • Claire Foy-The Crown
  • Laura Linney-Ozark
  • Elisabeth Moss-The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Robin Wright-House of Cards

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

  • The Crown
  • Game of Thrones
  • The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Stranger Things
  • This Is Us

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

  • Black-ish
  • Curb Your Enthusiasm
  • GLOW
  • Orange is the New Black
  • Veep

Best Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

  • Game of Thrones
  • GLOW
  • Homeland
  • Stranger Things
  • The Walking Dead

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