74th Primetime Emmy Awards Final Predictions

This Monday, awards season will finally kick off with the 74^th Primetime Emmy Awards. We will finally learn what the best of the best^* shows were in one of the most surprisingly great years in the medium’s history. Hell, I’ve even watched every single one of them (ok, I have to finish Pam and Tommy and Inventing Anna by Monday; but I have time). So, who will win Best Comedy? Can Succession hold off some incredibly strong competition? And how many Emmys is The White Lotus going to win? I have some thoughts on a year where the love is very likely to be spread.

Let’s start with the Drama categories, where things are a little bit easier. We know Succession is winning Best Drama Series (Squid Game and Better Call Saul stand an outside chance), and the best-written show on TV is a shoo-in for Best Writing. The only question is, can it win any acting categories? Well, let’s break that down. Best Actor involves a very tight race, with Bob Odenkirk fresh off a technically-ineligible final season (long story) that most fans agree was near-perfect. And Lee-Jung Jae won the SAG Award in an upset for his work on Netflix’s hit show Squid Game. I’d expect one of these two (I’m leaning Jae) to pull off the upset over a vote-splitting Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox.

A similar situation arises in Supporting Actress, where Sarah Snook and J. Smith-Cameron face fierce competition from two-time winner Julia Garner for Ozark, Jung-ho Yeon for Squid Game, and Rhea Seehorn for Saul. The safest bet is Garner, who went out on Ozark with a bang. But here’s the thing: now that voters have found Seehorn, who gave one of the decade’s best performances as Kim Wexler, I don’t think she can lose. Especially with those final episodes (which, again, is not the season voters are voting for). So that leaves Succession’s best bet as Best Supporting Actor.

Normally, three nominees would result in vote-splitting, and I’d be cautious to pick an actor. But here’s the thing: everyone in this category has a rival. There are two Squid Game actors, two Severance actors, and Billy Crudup is from one of the year’s worst-reviewed shows. Unless Squid Game’s O Yeong-Su pulls off a much-deserved upset, expect Tom, Roman, or Cousin Greg to take home the trophy. Now, odds are the twitchy, smarmy Kieran Culkin will win, as he’s clearly a fan favorite. But based on that final shot, not to mention the “Nero and Sporus” monologue, I’m betting on Matthew Macfadyen to win his first Emmy.

As for the other awards, Zendaya should take Best Actress in a cakewalk (Euphoria is a huge hit with voters in the Creative categories, plus Zendaya is just simply the best contender in the field), while Squid Game should find a reward in the Directing category for “Red Light, Green Light.”

Moving onto Comedy, things become even more challenging, and therefore more likely to see vote-splitting. A handful of favorites should emerge throughout the evening, giving the top category an exciting sense of unpredictability. Barry should take both male categories, given the unfair dramatic edge that Hader and Winkler bring to their roles. Jean Smart is pretty much a lock for Hacks (I say “pretty much” for reasons I’ll get into later). Hannah Waddingham should win Best Supporting Actress for her work on Ted Lasso. Only Murders should pick up hardware for its incredible dialogue-free episode “The Boy From 6B.” And Abbott Elementary should earn a writing Emmy for its hilarious pilot, as a show of good faith to Quinta Brunson.

This brings us to Best Comedy Series, the hardest category of the night. A strong argument can be made for reigning champion Ted Lasso, or the likely winningest show Barry, or the delightful underdog Abbott Elementary. So I have a bold new prediction. While I had Ted Lasso for a very long time taking this category, something happened at the Creative Arts Emmys: Abbott Elementary won Best Casting. The award that has lined up with Best Series eight out of ten times in the last decade. And so, I’m shifting my prediction: in a show of network force, Abbott Elementary will take Best Comedy Series. And if it does, be on the lookout for an upset or two, Fleabag style: Best Actress and Supporting Actress are up for grabs.

Finally, we have Limited Series, a category that feels pretty much over. Sure, Dopesick has a chance, but after dominating the Creative Arts Emmys, the heavily-nominated White Lotus feels like a done deal. It already had writing, directing, and Best Supporting Actor Murray Bartlett locked up. And while I toyed with the five Supporting Actress contenders splitting the vote and letting Kaitlyn Dever win, I watched Dopesick and there is no way her good performance as a drug-addled coal miner will top Jennifer Coolidge’s iconic work as a mourning billionaire on vacation in Hawaii. Don’t feel too bad for Dopesick, though – it should win a consolatory Best Actor prize for Michael Keaton, the odds-on favorite. And while there’s formidable competition in Best Actress, expect Amanda Seyfried to win as Elizabeth Holmes in The Dropout.

Amongst the other categories, don’t expect anything too shocking. Last Week Tonight should bring another award to John Oliver, while RuPaul should hold off a late push from Lizzo in Best Reality Competition Series. Oh, and since the Creative Arts Emmys have been given out, a few fun facts thus far. Chip n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers managed to ride its delightfully strong buzz to a Best TV Movie win. Schmigadoon! beat out Euphoria in Best Original Song thanks to the terrific (and catchy) “Corn Puddin.’” Laurie Metcalf won another Emmy for her work on Hacks, the great Colman Domingo won Best Guest Actor for Euphoria, Lee Yoo-mi won Best Guest Actress for her haunting turn on Squid Game, and Nathan Lane won his first Emmy for his creepy turn on Only Murders In The Building.

And that’s where we stand in the race to date. The 74^th Primetime Emmy Awards will be held on NBC this Monday at 8:00 pm. They will be hosted by Kenan Thompson. You can see all of the nominees below; my predictions are marked with a *, while already-awarded categories are marked in bold.

Best Drama Series

• Better Call Saul
• Euphoria
• Ozark
• Severance
• Squid Game
• Stranger Things
• Succession *
• Yellowjackets

Best Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary *
• Barry
• Curb Your Enthusiasm
• Hacks
• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
• Only Murders In The Building
• Ted Lasso
• What We Do In The Shadows

Best Limited Series

• Dopesick
• The Dropout
• Inventing Anna
• Pam and Tommy
• The White Lotus *

Best TV Movie

• Chip n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers
• Ray Donovan: The Movie
• Reno 911! The Hunt for QAnon
• The Survivor
• Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas

Best Reality Competition Program

• The Amazing Race
• Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrls
• Nailed It
• RuPaul’s Drag Race *
• Top Chef
• The Voice

Best Sketch Series

• A Black Lady Sketch Show
• Saturday Night Live *

Best Talk Series

• The Daily Show With Trevor Noah
• Jimmy Kimmel Live
• Last Week Tonight With John Oliver *
• Late Night with Seth Meyers
• The Late Show With Stephen Colbert 

Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

• Adele One Night Only
• Dave Chappelle: The Closer
• Harry Potter 20^th Anniversary: Return to Hogwarts
• Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
• One Last Time: An Evening With Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga

Best Animated Program

• Arcane – “When These Walls Come Tumbling Down”
• Bob’s Burgers – “Some Like It Bot Part 1: Eighth Grade Runner”
• Rick and Morty – “Mort Dinner Rick Andre”
• The Simpsons – “Pixelated and Afraid”
• What If…? – “What If…Doctor Strange Lost His Heart Instead of His Hands?”

Best Actor In A Drama Series

• Jason Bateman – Ozark
• Brian Cox – Succession
• Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game *
• Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
• Adam Scott – Severance
• Jeremy Strong – Succession

Best Actress In A Drama Series

• Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
• Laura Linney – Ozark
• Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets
• Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
• Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show
• Zendaya – Euphoria *

Best Actor In A Comedy Series

• Donald Glover – Atlanta
• Bill Hader – Barry *
• Nicholas Hoult – The Great
• Steve Martin – Only Murders In The Building
• Martin Short – Only Murders In The Building
• Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso

Best Actress In A Comedy Series

• Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
• Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
• Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
• Elle Fanning – The Great
• Issa Rae – Insecure
• Jean Smart – Hacks *

Best Actor In A Limited Series

• Colin Firth – The Staircase
• Andrew Garfield – Under The Banner of Heaven
• Oscar Isaac – Scenes From A Marriage
• Michael Keaton – Dopesick *
• Himesh Patel – Station Eleven
• Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy

Best Actress In A Limited Series

• Toni Collette – The Staircase
• Julia Garner – Inventing Anna
• Lily James – Pam and Tommy
• Sarah Paulson – Impeachment: American Crime Story
• Margaret Qualley – Maid
• Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout *

Best Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

• Nicholas Braun – Succession
• Billy Crudup – The Morning Show
• Kieran Culkin – Succession
• Park Hae-soo – Squid Game
• Matthew Macfadyen – Succession *
• John Turturro – Severance
• Christopher Walken – Severance
• O Yeong-Su – Squid Game 

Best Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

• Patricia Arquette – Severance
• Julia Garner – Ozark
• Jung Ho-Yeon – Squid Game
• Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets
• Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul *
• J. Smith-Cameron – Succession
• Sarah Snook – Succession
• Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria

Best Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

• Anthony Carrigan – Barry
• Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
• Toheeb Jimoh – Ted Lasso
• Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso
• Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
• Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
• Henry Winkler – Barry *
• Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

Best Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

• Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
• Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
• Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
• Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
• Sarah Niles – Ted Lasso
• Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary
• Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
• Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso *

Best Supporting Actor In A Limited Series

• Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus *
• Jake Lacy – The White Lotus
• Will Poulter – Dopesick
• Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy
• Peter Sarsgaard – Dopesick
• Michael Stuhlbarg – Dopesick
• Steve Zahn – The White Lotus

Best Supporting Actress In A Limited Series

• Connie Britton – The White Lotus
• Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus *
• Alexandra Daddario – The White Lotus
• Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick
• Natasha Rothwell – The White Lotus
• Sydney Sweeney – The White Lotus
• Mare Winningham – Dopesick

Best Guest Actor In A Drama Series

• Colman Domingo – Euphoria
• Adrien Brody – Succession
• James Cromwell – Succession
• Arian Moayed – Succession
• Tom Pelpheny – Ozark
• Alexander Skarsgård – Succession

Best Guest Actress In A Drama Series

• Lee Yoo-mi – Squid Game
• Hope Davis – Succession
• Marcia Gay Harden – The Morning Show
• Martha Kelly – Euphoria
• Saana Lathan – Succession
• Harriet Walter – Succession

Best Guest Actor In A Comedy Series

• Nathan Lane – Only Murders In The Building
• Jerrod Carmichael – Saturday Night Live
• Bill Hader – Curb Your Enthusiasm
• James Lance – Ted Lasso
• Christopher MacDonald – Hacks
• Sam Richardson – Ted Lasso 

Best Guest Actress In A Comedy Series

• Laurie Metcalf – Hacks
• Jane Adams – Hacks
• Harriet Sansom Harris – Hacks
• Jane Lynch – Only Murders In The Building
• Harriet Walter – Ted Lasso
• Kaitlin Olson – Hacks 

Best Directing In A Drama Series

• “A Hard Way To Go” – Ozark
• “The Way We Are” – Severance
• “Red Light, Green Light” – Squid Game *
• “All The Bells Say” – Succession
• “The Disruption” – Succession
• “Too Much Birthday” – Succession
• “Pilot” – Yellowjackets

Best Directing In A Comedy Series

• “New Jazz” – Atlanta
• “710N” – Barry
• “There Will Be Blood” – Hacks
• “Baby Daddy Groundhog Day” – The Ms. Pat Show
• “The Boy From 6B” – Only Murders In The Building *
• “True Crime” – Only Murders In The Building
• “No Weddings And A Funeral” – Ted Lasso

Best Directing In A Limited Series

• “The People vs. Purdue Pharma” – Dopesick
• “Green Juice” – The Dropout
• “Iron Sisters” – The Dropout
• “Sky Blue” – Maid
• “Wheel of Fire” – Station Eleven
• The White Lotus *

Best Writing In A Drama Series

• “Plan and Execution” – Better Call Saul
• “A Hard Way To Go” – Ozark
• “The Way We Are” – Severance
• “One Lucky Day” – Squid Game
• “All The Bells Say” – Succession *
• “F Sharp” – Yellowjackets
• “Pilot” – Yellowjackets 

Best Writing In A Comedy Series

• “Pilot” – Abbott Elementary *
• “710N” – Barry
• “starting now” – Barry
• “The One, The Only” – Hacks
• “True Crime” – Only Murders In The Building
• “No Weddings And A Funeral” – Ted Lasso
• “The Casino” – What We Do In The Shadows
• “The Wellness Center” – What We Do In The Shadows

Best Writing In A Miniseries/TV Movie

• “The People vs. Purdue Pharma” – Dopesick
• “I’m In A Hurry” – The Dropout
• “Man Handled” – Impeachment: American Crime Story
• “Snaps” – Maid
• “Unbroken Circle” – Station Eleven
• The White Lotus *

Best Music and Lyrics

• “Corn Puddin’” – Schmigadoon
• “Elliott’s Song” – Euphoria
• “I’m Tired” – Euphoria
• “The Forever Now” – This Is Us
• “Maybe Monica” – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel