77th Tony Award Predictions

Tonight the 77th Tony Awards will air on Pluto TV, Paramount Plus and CBS, hosted once again by Ariana DeBose. I haven’t covered the race too much this year, due to a combination of the fairly basic slate (Stereophonic and Merrily We Roll Along are about to dominate) and because the Sacred Wall is in the process of being revamped (more on this to come). But before the show premieres at 8:00 pm, I thought I’d offer up some predictions, with a recap of the show coming tomorrow.

As mentioned, the big winners tonight will be the original play Stereophonic and the Sondheim revival Merrily We Roll Along. In the case of the former, Arcade Fire’s stand-in for the creation of Rumours should win Best Play, Best Featured Actress for Sarah Pidgeon (playing Not-Stevie Nicks), and a whole slew of tech awards – not to mention becoming the first play to win Best Score for the original songs the band created. As for Merrily, the redemption for Sondheim through the most beloved show of the year should dominate over the weaker slate of new shows. Expect wins for Orchestration (longtime Sondheim conductor Jonathan Tunick can finally win a Tony for his work with the master), Revival, Best Director, and a near-sweep of the acting categories for Jonathan Groff, Daniel Radcliffe, and Lindsay Mendez (the former’s first after several nominations).

Amongst those newer plays, expect some stiff competition between Alicia Keys’ life story Hell’s Kitchen and the traditional adaptation of the beloved Young Adult novel The Outsiders. While The Outsiders should have technical love, winning Best Lighting Design and narrowly losing Best Choreography to Illinoise (all that show has is dance), expect Keys to be the bigger name. It should win Best Musical, Best Book, Best Actress in a Musical for Maleah Joy Moon, and Scenic and Sound Design. Rounding out the musical categories, the terrible recreation of Cabaret will likely win Best Costume Design.

Which brings us to the much-tougher play categories. Any place Stereophonic is not nominated is mostly a toss-up – and even some of the big categories for Stereophonic. For example, three nominees in Best Featured Actor could allow Corey Stoll in Appropriate to sneak in for the win. Appropriate should similarly edge out Jessica Lange in Best Actress for Sarah Paulson, Best Scenic Design, and ultimately, Best Revival of a Play. Best Actor, meanwhile, should be a toss-up between Jeremy Strong in the bleak An Enemy of the People and Leslie Odom Jr. in the comedic Purlie Victorious. The Tonys love Leslie, so expect him to take home his second Tony (Kara Young could also upset in Best Featured Actress in a Play). Otherwise, the only potential winner will be Jaja’s African Hair Braiding, for its Costume Design.

That wraps up my predictions for tonight’s show. The 77th Tony Awards will be on CBS tonight at 8 pm, you can see all the nominees listed below, with a * to mark my predictions.

Best Play

  • Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
  • Mary Jane
  • Mother Play
  • Prayer for the French Republic
  • Stereophonic *

Best Musical

  • Hell’s Kitchen *
  • Illinoise
  • The Outsiders
  • Suffs
  • Water for Elephants

Best Revival of a Play

  • Appropriate *
  • An Enemy of the People
  • Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp through the Cotton Patch

Best Revival of a Musical

  • Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
  • Gutenberg! The Musical
  • Merrily We Roll Along *
  • The Who’s Tommy

Best Leading Actor in a Play

  • William Jackson Harper – Uncle Vanya
  • Leslie Odom Jr. – Purlie Victorious *
  • Liev Schreiber – Doubt: A Parable
  • Jeremy Strong – An Enemy of the People
  • Michael Stuhlbarg – Patriots

Best Leading Actress in a Play

  • Betsy Aidem – Prayer for the French Republic
  • Jessica Lange – Mother Play
  • Rachel McAdams – Mary Jane
  • Sarah Paulson – Appropriate *
  • Amy Ryan – Doubt: A Parable

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

  • Brody Grant – The Outsiders
  • Jonathan Groff – Merrily We Roll Along *
  • Dorian Harewood – The Notebook
  • Brian d’Arcy James – Days of Wine and Roses
  • Eddie Redmayne – Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

  • Eden Espinosa – Lempicka
  • Maleah Joi Moon – Hell’s Kitchen *
  • Kelli O’Hara – Days of Wine and Roses
  • Maryann Plunkett – The Notebook
  • Gayle Rankin – Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Featured Actor in a Play

  • Will Brill – Stereophonic
  • Eli Gelb – Stereophonic
  • Jim Parsons – Mother Play
  • Tom Pecinka – Stereophonic
  • Corey Stoll – Appropriate *

Best Featured Actress in a Play

  • Quincy Tyler Bernstine – Doubt: A Parable
  • Juliana Canfield – Stereophonic
  • Celia Keenan-Bolger – Mother Play
  • Sarah Pidgeon – Stereophonic *
  • Kara Young – Purlie Victorious

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

  • Roger Bart – Back to the Future: The Musical
  • Joshua Boone – The Outsiders
  • Brandon Victor Dixon – Hell’s Kitchen
  • Sky Lakota-Lynch – The Outsiders
  • Daniel Radcliffe – Merrily We Roll Along *
  • Steven Skybell – Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

  • Shoshana Bean – Hell’s Kitchen
  • Amber Iman – Lempicka
  • Nikki M. James – Suffs
  • Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer – Monty Python’s Spamalot
  • Kecia Lewis – Hell’s Kitchen
  • Lindsay Mendez – Merrily We Roll Along *
  • Bebe Neuwirth – Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club 

Best Director of a Play

  • Daniel Aukin – Stereophonic *
  • Anne Kauffman – Mary Jane
  • Kenny Leon – Purlie Victorious
  • Lila Neugebauer – Appropriate
  • Whitney White – Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

Best Director of a Musical

  • Maria Friedman – Merrily We Roll Along *
  • Michael Greif – Hell’s Kitchen
  • Leigh Silverman – Suffs
  • Jessica Stone – Water for Elephants
  • Danya Taymor – The Outsiders

Best Book of a Musical

  • Hell’s Kitchen *
  • The Notebook
  • The Outsiders
  • Suffs
  • Water for Elephants

Best Music and Lyrics

  • Days of Wine and Roses
  • Here Lies Love
  • Stereophonic *
  • Suffs
  • The Outsiders

Best Scenic Design of a Play

  • Appropriate *
  • An Enemy of the People
  • Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
  • Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp through the Cotton Patch
  • Stereophonic

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

  • Back to the Future: The Musical
  • Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
  • Hell’s Kitchen *
  • Here Lies Love
  • Lempicka
  • The Outsiders
  • Water for Elephants

Best Sound Design of a Play

  • Appropriate
  • Grey House
  • Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
  • Mary Jane
  • Stereophonic *

Best Sound Design of a Musical

  • Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
  • Hell’s Kitchen *
  • Here Lies Love
  • Merrily We Roll Along
  • The Outsiders

Best Lighting Design of a Play

  • Appropriate
  • An Enemy of the People
  • Grey House
  • Prayer for the French Republic
  • Stereophonic *

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

  • Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
  • Hell’s Kitchen
  • Illinoise
  • The Outsiders *
  • Water for Elephants

Best Costume Design of a Play

  • Appropriate
  • An Enemy of the People
  • Jaja’s African Hair Braiding *
  • Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp through the Cotton Patch
  • Stereophonic

Best Costume Design of a Musical

  • Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club *
  • The Great Gatsby
  • Hell’s Kitchen
  • Suffs
  • Water for Elephants

Best Choreography

  • Hell’s Kitchen
  • Here Lies Love
  • Illinoise *
  • The Outsiders
  • Water for Elephants

Best Orchestrations

  • Hell’s Kitchen
  • Illinoise
  • Merrily We Roll Along *
  • The Outsiders
  • Stereophonic

Add Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *