This Sunday, in between bouts of Jimmy Fallon murdering comedy, we will get our first real look at the awards race as the 74th Golden Globe Awards are presented. It should be a fun night-we’ll get the first matchup between the big contenders, we’ll get to see the winners try their speeches on for size, and then we’ll get to witness the joy of drunk Harrison Ford and others. The Golden Globes are the award of fun, and for that reason I’m going to loosen up my predictions a little bit. Instead of offering up a boring list of predictions and reasoning by a stuffy expert, I’m going to start a Sacred Wall tradition that I hope will keep you entertained for years to come.
I’m going to officially kick off the Sacred Wall Beat The Guru Golden Globe Predictions! For the past two years, I’ve been engaged with my protégé, a woman of the people, in a battle to see who knows the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. The first year I got cocky, and despite spending months reading the tea leaves and seeing the films, I got my ass handed to me. The second year I came back stronger, and more prepared…and I still only won by one (thanks, The Revenant!) So I thought you all would enjoy following along, category by category, seeing my logic in making my picks before my adversarial protégé makes her random selections, and then root for her to prove that I’m not as smart as I say I am.
So allow me to introduce Lena Smith, the People’s Champion. Lena and I were teammates back in college, and over time, became friends. During my annual Oscar pool, I did my best to educate Lena on both great cinema as well as how to predict awards. She quickly became [almost] as good as me, choosing to use her gut and make hunches instead of copious amounts of studying (her choosing to use her studying on actual scholastic pursuits perhaps explains the discrepancy in our GPAs). Her favorite films are The Wizard of Oz, E.T. the Extraterrestrial, Little Miss Sunshine, and the most recent addition, La La Land. As she is now off at grad school studying something or other, I asked her if she wanted to contribute to this article and offer up her own predictions to compete with mine. She said yes, and so now you can follow along in the Ultimate Battle of Book Smarts vs. Street Smarts (note: in real life, she is the book smart one vs. my street smarts).
Film
Best Film-Drama
Travis: The drama category is arguably the most competitive field around this year. Of the three frontrunners, La La Land gets to sit unopposed in the musical/comedy category. This leaves Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight to duel it out for Best Drama. Now, the current trend of things has been that Manchester is getting ready to make a back-half push for the big awards. However, I feel that this award is going to go to Moonlight. The reason I’m sticking with Moonlight is twofold. First, it’s very much the best film in this field. There really aren’t many films like it, and I think the Globes will reward that. The second reason is that, at their heart, the Globes are essentially a glorified critics award. The critics have almost unanimously gone for Moonlight. I don’t expect this award to be any different. It is also possible that the Globes, famous for star-f*cking (a phrase I’m going to use several times in this article), end up picking Hacksaw Ridge. However, I’m both rooting for and predicting the little indie film that could to take home the prize.
Prediction: Moonlight
Lena: I still need to see this, but I feel the win for Moonlight is deserved.
Prediction: Moonlight
Best Film-Musical or Comedy
Travis: This one really isn’t a contest. Sure, it’s possible that Deadpool makes a big push at the last minute, or 20th Century Women has a strong fan base, or even that Harvey Weinstein buys a win for Sing Street. But the big winner this Sunday is going to be La La Land, and I don’t expect that to be any different when it comes to the big prize.
Prediction: La La Land
Lena: I’ll pick the masterpiece.
Prediction: La La Land
Best Leading Actor in a Drama
Travis: This is where things get interesting. This is a category that is firmly between two actors. Both have an equal chance of winning, and both have an equal chance of winning at the Oscars. These two are Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea and Denzel Washington for Fences. The easy money is on Affleck-he’s young, he’s charming (despite an unruly past), and he’s heartbreaking in a film making a real push for Best Picture. He’s also been winning several awards up to this point. I could play it extra safe by picking him. But I’m not going to. Because one phrase keeps sticking in my mind: star-f*cking. Washington is one of the biggest movie stars on the planet, and Fences is one of his finest performances. I’m going to predict that the Globes will shake things up and pick him, and officially get the heat of this Oscar race going.
Prediction: Denzel Washington-Fences
Lena: I’m going to do my best to earn back my Globes Predictions Throne. I’m playing it safe and picking Affleck.
Prediction: Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Best Leading Actress in a Drama
Travis: This one seems open and shut on its surface, but don’t be surprised. I wouldn’t be surprised if they announced Amy Adams’ name on Sunday for her stunning work in Arrival. But it would be stupid to predict anyone other Natalie Portman in Jackie. Hers is the performance of the year, she’s racked up an impressive amount of preseason awards, and without Emma Stone to compete with, this is a slam dunk.
Prediction: Natalie Portman-Jackie
Lena: Wow, this is a tough one. I’m sad that I can’t pick Amy Adams for this award. I’m sorry Amy, I still love you! But my pick goes to Natalie Portman.
Prediction: Natalie Portman-Jackie
Best Leading Actor in a Musical or Comedy
Travis: This is one of the hardest categories for me to pick. I’m pulling for Ryan Gosling in La La Land, and I’m not sure I can vote against him, but this is by far La La Land’s weakest category. I can see any of these actors receiving the win, from Ryan Reynolds, who is single-handedly the reason Deadpool works as well it does, to Hugh Grant, who could make an impressive case for his first Academy Award nomination for his charming and loving work in Florence Foster Jenkins, and even Colin Farrell, who is adorably pudgy and lovable in the absurd The Lobster. I’m going to go with the sweep and stick with Gosling, but don’t doubt for a second that this is an easy choice for me.
Prediction: Ryan Gosling-La La Land
Lena: Angry “Jingle Bells” played on the piano=yes. Oh, and learning to play piano, tap dance AND waltz without camera cuts? No big deal. I pick Gosling.
Prediction: Ryan Gosling-La La Land
Best Leading Actress in a Musical or Comedy
Travis: This is a category similar to Best Actress in a Drama. It seems so simple as to be a lock, but could be building to a massive upset. Annette Bening is certainly primed to win Best Actress both here and at the Oscars, and Meryl Streep is Meryl Streep, but despite their “aged starlet” status, and Bening’s overdue nature, I’m still hard-pressed to find a reason to not pick Emma Stone’s heartbreaking and adorable performance in La La Land as the winner of this category.
Prediction: Emma Stone-La La Land
Lena: ABSOLUTELY NO EXPLANATION NEEDED, PERFECTION HAS BEEN ACHIEVED!
Prediction: Emma Stone-La La Land
Best Supporting Actor
Travis: This category seems like it’s most prime for an upset. Mahershala Ali seems like he’s poised to just sweep through Oscar season with the cleanest Best Supporting Actor sweep since J.K. Simmons won every award for Whiplash. However, he also doesn’t have the name value of the renowned character actor. Ali is just as talented, and absolutely deserving, but he’s not as well-known a name or face to get by on his good graces. Therefore, it is entirely possible that Jeff Bridges sneaks in for Hell or High Water, or Dev Patel sneaks in for Lion. However, I’m not convinced either of them are ready to come after the king yet, so I’m going to stick with Ali for his charming work in Moonlight.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Lena: Again, I still need to see Moonlight, but I have a feeling that this is deserved.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Travis: This category is over. Viola Davis is incredible in Fences, and none of the other nominees come close to touching her. Davis is a mortal lock and it is stupid to vote against her.
Prediction: Viola Davis-Fences
Lena: See above, but change Moonlight to Fences.
Prediction: Viola Davis-Fences
Best Director
Travis: This is the most challenging category. It can theoretically go one of three ways (four, if Tom Ford bribed the HFPA more). It could be Damien Chazelle, for what he accomplished with the technically incredible La La Land. It could be Barry Jenkins for his masterful Moonlight. Or they could star-f*ck and pick Mel Gibson. Honestly, it could be any of the three. While Jenkins perhaps has the strongest case made, based on his remarkable month of December, I’m going to pick Chazelle, both because I’m anticipating a La La Land sweep and because of personal love for Chazelle. But I’m not feeling confident about this pick.
Prediction: Damien Chazelle-La La Land
Lena: YES! YES! YES! If I said anything more it would be the length of my Senior Independent Study. And nobody wants that.
Prediction: Damien Chazelle-La La Land
Best Screenplay
Travis: This is perhaps the easiest category to predict. Sure, the scripts for Hell or High Water and Moonlight are absolute perfection, and La La Land has the benefit of the potential sweep. But I think this is Manchester by the Sea’s chance to shine. It’s the smartest, saddest, most realistic script of the year, and I don’t see how it loses.
Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Lena: Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Score
Travis: This is kind of a no-brainer. If there’s a place for a shocker, I would say Arrival could sneak in for it’s incredible score (it’s still shocking that it can’t win at the Oscars), and the same can be said for Hidden Figures or Moonlight. But you can’t go against La La Land. If it loses every other category of the night, it has this one locked up. La La Land is taking this prize home, and you can take that to the bank.
Prediction: La La Land
Lena: I’m sad I can’t pick Arrival, because I do love this score, but I’m probably becoming one of La La Land’s most frequent listeners on Spotify (90% a joke but I can’t say this hasn’t happened before…eek).
Prediction: La La Land
Best Original Song
Travis: I’m taking a massive leap of faith here. The obvious money is on “City of Stars” from La La Land, which is inevitably going to win Best Original Song at the Oscars. The second most obvious choice is “How Far I’ll Go,” which will allow Lin-Manuel Miranda to get his big movie award. However, I’m going to pick a third choice, for two reasons. First, the Golden Globe rarely ever goes to the Oscar winner. This means the odds are against La La Land here, and also aren’t great for Moana. The second is this is the category where the Globes really like to award the biggest celebrity. Cher, U2, Bruce Springsteen, and Mick Jagger are just a few of the celebrities who won the Globe without even being nominated at the Oscars. Therefore, I’m going to predict the biggest celebrity nominated: Justin Timberlake. I’m going out on a limb and saying the Song of the Summer will win the Globe this year.
Prediction: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”-Trolls
Lena: I wish La La Land had picked any other song for this category. However, I’m hoping they’re going to give Lin-Manuel Miranda some love (please).
Prediction: “How Far I’ll Go”-Moana
Best Animated Feature
Travis: This category is a bit up in the air, but we all have a good feeling about how this will go. It could be Moana, the gorgeous and expertly scored epic. It could be Kubo and the Two Strings, an artistically perfect adventure film. Or it could be My Life as a Zucchini, which has the foreign allure of being a Swiss film. However, I’m going to play it safe and predict Zootopia, one of my favorite films of the year, and one of the timeliest in terms of its themes.
Prediction: Zootopia
Lena: DREAM BIG AND TRY EVERYTHING! Wow, I could cry.
Prediction: Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Film
Travis: The Globes have a tendency to pick differently than the Oscars. This gives the edge to the controversial French film Elle (which received a nomination in Best Actress in a Drama), or to the Iranian film The Salesman. However, I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is one of the few years where the frontrunner at the Oscars will win at the Globes as well. Therefore, I’m going to pick the German satirical dark comedy (weird sentence) Toni Erdmann.
Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Lena: I’ve gotta spice up the predictions race somehow. My vote goes to The Salesman.
Prediction: The Salesman
Television
Best Drama Series
Travis: This category is really up in the air. Any of these films could theoretically win the Globe. When it comes to Drama Series, they alternate between awarding a classic show and a new show. This means anything, from Game of Thrones to The Crown. If anything, I’d say Game of Thrones has a great chance of taking home the Globe for its best show of the year for a stellar season, as do This Is Us and The Crown, two of the most impressive new shows out there. However, nothing had the edge as a true cultural phenomenon the way Stranger Things did, and I feel that the Globes will hop on the bandwagon to reward them.
Prediction: Stranger Things
Lena: I’m hoping to spice up the predictions race, so I’m going to predict The Crown.
Prediction: The Crown
Best Musical or Comedy Series
Travis: The Musical or Comedy branch loves to reward the new show on the block. Last year, that was Mozart in the Jungle. This year, it’s going to be the hottest, most surreal comedy in the business. There’s no way Atlanta loses this award.
Prediction: Atlanta
Lena: Atlanta
Best Leading Actor in a Drama Series
Travis: This is a challenging category. History shows that the Globes are more likely to repeat the winner of Best Actor in a Drama Series than other categories. Therefore, the edge belongs to Rami Malek for Mr. Robot. It’s possible someone else sneaks in, with Bob Odenkirk, Live Schreiber, or Billy Bob Thornton seeming the most likely. However, I’m going to play the history and hope it works out for me.
Prediction: Rami Malek-Mr. Robot
Lena: I’m going to go for the new guy, Billy Bob Thornton.
Prediction: Billy Bob Thornton-Goliath
Best Leading Actress in a Drama Series
Travis: There are three smart bets here. The first is last year’s nominee Caitriona Balfe for Outlander. The second is the big favorite, Claire Foy for The Crown. And the third is the biggest star in the category, Winona Ryder for Stranger Things. Personally, while I think the odds are in favor of Foy, I’m going to give the edge of Ryder. Her performance in “Holly, Jolly” is so ridiculously great, it seems right on par with the Globes’ tastes.
Prediction: Winona Ryder-Stranger Things
Lena: Winona Ryder-Stranger Things
Best Leading Actor in a Musical or Comedy Series
Travis: There’s a lot of great actors in this category. Jeffrey Tambor would be the smart money if he had won last year, but he was upset by Gael García Bernal. This shows that previous wins don’t carry over, meaning both are unlikely winners. This leaves Anthony Anderson, Donald Glover, and Nick Nolte. Glover is probably this year’s Aziz Ansari, as in the younger wunderkind who created the best show of the year, and thus unlikely to win the award. I’m going to go against Nolte because his show just isn’t the hit it needs to be. This leaves us with Anderson. Anderson has been well liked in the industry for years, he’s been nominated several times for the role, and he lights up any room he’s in. His speech would be a highlight of the night, and I’m hoping he gets the opportunity to deliver it.
Prediction: Anthony Anderson-black-ish
Lena: Nick Nolte-Graves
Best Leading Actress in a Musical or Comedy Series
Travis: Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy Series has been a hot category for years. Two years ago, Gina Rodriguez pulled off the upset over Julia Louis-Dreyfus for the first season of Jane the Virgin (and gave Lena the edge to win our first head-to-head matchup). Then last year, I picked Rachel Bloom for the same reason: she was the new girl on the block on a CW television series that was driven by her talent and charisma, and it was the category that gave me the win. This year, I’m going to use the same logic. Issa Rae is this year’s new girl on the block, and I think she’ll be rewarded for creating her own television series driven by her own charisma and talent.
Prediction: Issa Rae-Insecure
Lena: I can’t believe I’m going to betray Gina Rodriguez. I’m likely to lose because of this one.
Prediction: Issa Rae-Insecure
Best Leading Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Travis: It’s entirely possible that the Globes go against the expected. I mean, Matthew McConaughey lost his Globe to Billy Bob Thornton in a shocking upset two years ago. Therefore, it’s entirely possible that John Turturro sneaks in to win the Globe. However, until then, I just don’t see how Courtney B. Vance can lose for his incredible performance in The People V. O.J. Simpson. It’s the best male performance on TV, and it’s going to win, with a solid 90% certainty.
Prediction: Courtney B. Vance-The People V. O.J. Simpson
Lena: Bryan Cranston-All the Way (ed. note: This could potentially happen if the Globes are still as obsessed with Breaking Bad as Lena is)
Best Leading Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Travis: This is an open and shut case. It’s over. Just pick Sarah Paulson and move in. No one, in any field, was as incredible as Paulson was as Marcia Clarke in The People V. O.J. Simpson. It was a truly masterful work, and she’s going to win this award the same way she’s won every other award for it. You can take this to the bank.
Prediction: Sarah Paulson-The People V. O.J. Simpson
Lena: Sarah Paulson-The People V. O.J. Simpson
Best Supporting Actor
Travis: This is one of the most heated categories in the Television categories. A case can be made for any of these actors. Christian Slater won last year, Hugh Laurie still has goodwill from The Night Manager, and John Travolta is, well, John Travolta. However, if you ask me, it’s a two person race: John Lithgow and Sterling K. Brown. Don’t get me wrong: Lithgow is great. His Churchill is rightfully getting praise left and right, and he could be The Crown’s big win Sunday night. However, I’m going to go with Sterling K. Brown, for two reasons. First, his performance was one of the greatest parts of the show, filled with a warmth and heart that helped center the show at all times. Second, Brown isn’t just nominated for The People V. O.J. Simpson, no matter what the official list says. This is also a nomination for This Is Us, one of the breakout shows of the year, and a clear favorite for the Globes. Therefore, I expect that they will reward him for both shows with this one win. And he deserves it.
Prediction: Sterling K. Brown-The People V. O.J. Simpson
Lena: John Lithgow-The Crown
Best Supporting Actress
Travis: I’m really tempted to pick Thandie Newton here. She’s on a hot streak for her performance in Westworld, she’s been beloved in the industry for years, and it could be a chance to give the show some love. However, I just can’t get it out of my head that Lena Headey will win for Game of Thrones. This season was her crowning achievement, and I think they’ll reward her for “The Winds of Winter” alone.
Prediction: Lena Headey-Game of Thrones
Lena: How can I not?!?
Prediction: Lena Headey-Game of Thrones (Ed. Note: I see what you did there)
Best Miniseries or TV Movie
Travis: Once again, there’s no stopping The People v. O.J. Simpson. The Juice is most certainly loose, and it will most certainly take home the Golden Globe for Best Miniseries, no question.
Prediction: The People V. O.J. Simpson
Lena: The People V. O.J. Simpson
And that wraps up this year’s Sacred Wall Beat The Guru Golden Globe Predictions! Lena and I thank you for reading, and we hope you tune in Sunday to find out who wins both the Globes as well as our little competition. Will I prove the importance of statistics and facts? Or will Lena come in using her gut and a hunch to win the day? There’s only one way to find out. The ceremony starts at 8:00 pm on NBC.
Film
Best Film-Drama
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Lion
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight T L
Best Film-Musical or Comedy
- 20th Century Women
- Deadpool
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- La La Land T L
- Sing Street
Best Leading Actor in a Drama
- Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea L
- Joel Edgerton-Loving
- Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge
- Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic
- Denzel Washington-Fences T
Best Leading Actress in a Drama
- Amy Adams-Arrival
- Jessica Chastain-Miss Sloane
- Isabelle Huppert-Elle
- Ruth Negga-Loving
- Natalie Portman-Jackie T L
Best Leading Actor in a Musical or Comedy
- Colin Farrell-The Lobster
- Ryan Gosling-La La Land T L
- Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
- Jonah Hill-War Dogs
- Ryan Reynolds-Deadpool
Best Leading Actress in a Musical or Comedy
- Annette Bening-20th Century Women
- Lily Collins-Rules Don’t Apply
- Hailee Steinfeld-The Edge of Seventeen
- Emma Stone-La La Land T L
- Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali-Moonlight T L
- Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
- Simon Helberg-Florence Foster Jenkins
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson-Nocturnal Animals
- Dev Patel-Lion
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis-Fences T L
- Naomie Harris-Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman-Lion
- Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
Best Director
- Damien Chazelle-La La Land T L
- Tom Ford-Nocturnal Animals
- Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge
- Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
- Kenneth Lonergan-Manchester by the Sea
Best Screenplay
- Hell or High Water
- La La Land
- Manchester by the Sea T L
- Moonlight
- Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Score
- Arrival
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land T L
- Lion
- Moonlight
Best Original Song
- Can’t Stop the Feeling-Trolls T
- City of Stars-La La Land
- Faith-Sing
- Gold-Gold
- How Far I’ll Go-Moana L
Best Animated Feature
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- My Life as a Zucchini
- Sing
- Zootopia T L
Best Foreign Language Film
- Divines
- Elle
- Neruda
- The Salesman L
- Toni Erdmann T
Television
Best Drama Series
- The Crown L
- Game of Thrones
- Stranger Things T
- This Is Us
- Westworld
Best Musical or Comedy Series
- Atlanta T L
- black-ish
- Mozart in the Jungle
- Transparent
- Veep
Best Leading Actor in a Drama Series
- Rami Malek- Robot T
- Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul
- Matthew Rhys-The Americans
- Liev Schreiber-Ray Donovan
- Billy Bob Thornton-Goliath L
Best Leading Actress in a Drama Series
- Caitriona Balfe-Outlander
- Claire Foy-The Crown
- Keri Russell-The Americans
- Winona Ryder-Stranger Things T L
- Evan Rachel Wood-Westworld
Best Leading Actor in a Musical or Comedy Series
- Anthony Anderson-black-ish T
- Gael García Bernal-Mozart in the Jungle
- Donald Glover-Atlanta
- Nick Nolte-Graves L
- Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent
Best Leading Actress in a Musical or Comedy Series
- Rachel Bloom-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep
- Sarah Jessica Parker-Divorce
- Issa Rae-Insecure T L
- Gina Rodriguez-Jane the Virgin
- Tracee Ellis Ross-black-ish
Best Leading Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
- Riz Ahmed-The Night Of
- Bryan Cranston-All the Way L
- Tom Hiddleston-The Night Manager
- John Turturro-The Night Of
- Courtney B. Vance-The People vs. O.J. Simpson T
Best Leading Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
- Felicity Huffman-American Crime
- Riley Keough-The Girlfriend Experience
- Sarah Paulson-The People vs. O.J. Simpson T L
- Charlotte Rampling-London Spy
- Kerry Washington-Confirmation
Best Supporting Actor
- Sterling K. Brown-The People vs. O.J. Simpson T
- Hugh Laurie-The Night Manager
- John Lithgow-The Crown L
- Christian Slater- Robot
- John Travolta-The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Best Supporting Actress
- Olivia Colman-The Night Manager
- Lena Headey-Game of Thrones T L
- Chrissy Metz-This Is Us
- Mandy Moore-This Is Us
- Thandie Newton-Westworld
Best Miniseries or TV Movie
- American Crime
- The Dresser
- The Night Manager
- The Night Of
- The People vs. O.J. Simpson T L
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