24th Screen Actors Guild Predictions

The Critics Choice and Golden Globes have finally spoken, and we have a general idea of what’s a contender and what isn’t, but let’s be clear: none of these matter in terms of what the Academy goes for. None of those people are voting at the Oscars, and they can have very different opinions on very different things. That’s why things like the Screen Actors Guild Awards are so important: as the biggest voting bloc of the Academy, the films they like and don’t like can be make-or-break for any and all contenders. And in a year like this, where there are no less than twenty great ensembles and no less than fifteen frontrunners in every single category, whatever they decide will be a determining force going forward in the Oscar race. But how are they going to vote? Well, I have some predictions.

Let’s start with film, because that’s the most exciting race. The big award at this show is the Best Ensemble award, signifying the best all-around group of actors in a film that year. This category is difficult because they always like to mix things up, as can be seen from Bleeker Street’s two bought nominations for Trumbo and Captain Fantastic, or their love for musicals and comedies, like Hairspray and Bridesmaids. However, this is also an essential category, as no film has ever won Best Picture without being nominated here (again: actors are the biggest voting bloc of the Academy). This is the reason we can look back and see Moonlight, a large ensemble piece, beat out La La Land, which was not nominated. So who should be big here? Well, look for the two big frontrunners to come out ahead: Lady Bird and The Shape of Water. You can also expect the best ensemble of the year, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, to make it in, regardless of any backlash currently building around the film. As there’s a decent percentage of journalists in the Guild after they merged with AFTRA a few years ago, expect the huge ensemble to (deservingly) make it in from The Post. This leaves one last slot, and it could go almost anywhere. It could be The Greatest Showman, Phantom Thread, Get Out, The Florida Project (albeit unlikely due to the lack of SAG members), Call Me By Your Name, and especially Mudbound. However, if I was to hazard a guess, that final slot will go to Dunkirk, keeping its Oscar dreams alive and honoring a film that is the definition of a true ensemble piece. Any one of those films could fall away, and that would mean any one of these films would instantly drop in the Oscar race. However, as it currently stands, these are the five I think stand the best chance.

But what of the individual performances? Well, the Oscars and SAG usually line up somewhere between 2/5 to 4/5 of the time. So all of your expected frontrunners should be here: Gary Oldman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins, Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep, Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell, Laurie Metcalf, and Allison Janney are all locks. If any of these names miss tomorrow, I will be truly shocked. However, how do we fill out the rest of these categories. Well, for the male performances, it would be wise to assume both of the Call Me By Your Name actors will make it in, so you can write down Timothée Chalamet and previous nominee Armie Hammer. After that, things get tricky. There are two slots left for Best Actor, and three actors in contention. Based on their love for movies about actors, you can also assume that James Franco will make it in. As for that last slot, the smart money is Tom Hanks for The Post. In fact, that’s probably who’s going to win. However, I’m going to take a chance here, and assume that this is where Jake Gyllenhaal sneaks into the Oscar race to make a splash. He’s my prediction for #5, or else he’ll be on his last legs for the Oscar race (Oh my god, I hate myself for that one). As for Supporting Actor, I think Richard Jenkins is safe, although I’m not sure of his Oscar chances just yet. Which leaves a fifth slot, and while it could go to a great number of actors (SAG loves genre actors, so Patrick Stewart could sneak in), I think Mudbound will be honored through a Jason Mitchell nod (a dislike of singer-turned-actors may sabotage Mary J. Blige). This leaves the actresses. Best Actress should be mostly paper, although I think an older actress like Judi Dench will get in over a performance as out-there as Margot Robbie’s (should Robbie get in, though, she may be our new frontrunner). And in Supporting Actress, expect a healthy mix of newcomers in Hong Chau and veterans like Octavia Spencer and Holly Hunter.

Unlike the Golden Globes, television tends to be a little easier to predict. Newer shows have a hell of a time getting in here (last year’s win for Stranger Things notwithstanding). Therefore, expect most of the Drama nominees to be the same (well, except Kevin Spacey…yikes), including Sterling K. Brown, Peter Dinklage, Bob Odenkirk, Claire Foy, Millie Bobby Brown, and Robin Wright. The same can be said for the Comedy categories (and ditto for Jeffrey Tambor…again, yikes), with Ty Burrell, Titus Burgess, Anthony Anderson, Uzo Aduba, Ellie Kemper, Lily Tomlin, Tracee Ellis Ross, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus all making a return. In terms of newcomers, I think Jason Bateman and last year’s stand-out David Harbour will elbow their way into the Actor – Drama race and Maggie Gyllenhaal and eventual winner Elisabeth Moss in Actress – Drama, while Aziz Ansari and Sean Hayes will return after a hiatus to enter the comedy race (and forcing William H. Macy out of the race). And then there’s the Ensemble races. Drama should feature the return of Stranger Things, The Crown, and Game of Thrones, while The Handmaid’s Tale and The Deuce will force out This Is Us. Meanwhile, Comedy will feature the return of Veep, black-ish, Modern Family, and Orange is the New Black, while Will and Grace will make its triumphant return to the Globes with a nomination here. Oh, and expect a Big Little Lies sweep, because it will. It’ll be a chalk year, but should shape up to be a good one.

So that wraps up my predictions for tomorrow’s SAG nominations. I won’t be home when the predictions are announced, but I should have a write-up posted around 3 or 4, so look for it then. Until then, you can see my predictions below, and the SAG Awards will be held on January 21^st, 2018, and it will be hosted for the first time ever by Kristen Bell.

Film

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Timothée Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
• Jake Gyllenhaal-Stronger
• James Franco-The Disaster Artist
• Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Judi Dench-Victoria and Abdul
• Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep-The Post

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
• Armie Hammer-Call Me By Your Name
• Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
• Jason Mitchell-Mudbound
• Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

• Hong Chau-Downsizing
• Holly Hunter-The Big Sick
• Allison Janney-I, Tonya
• Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

Best Cast in a Motion Picture

• Dunkirk
  • Aneurin Barnard, Kenneth Branagh, Tom Hardy, Jack Lowden, Cillian Murphy, Mark Rylance, Harry Styles & Fionn Whitehead
• Lady Bird
  • Timothée Chalamet, Beanie Feldstein, Lucas Hedges, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Tracy Letts, Laurie Metcalf, Saorise Ronan & Lois Smith
• The Post
  • Alison Brie, Carrie Coon, David Cross, Bruce Greenwood, Tom Hanks, Tracy Letts, Bob Odenkirk, Sarah Paulson, Jesse Plemons, Meryl Streep, Michael Stuhlbarg, Bradley Whitford, & Zach Woods
• The Shape of Water
  • Sally Hawkins, Richard Jenkins, Doug Jones, Michael Shannon, Octavia Spencer, & Michael Stuhlbarg
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Abbie Cornish, Peter Dinklage, Woody Harrelson, John Hawkes, Lucas Hedges, Caleb Landry Jones, Frances McDormand, Kathryn Newton, & Sam Rockwell

Best Stunt Ensemble

• Atomic Blonde
• Dunkirk
• Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
• Logan
• Thor: Ragnarok

Television

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

• Jeff Daniels-Godless
• Robert De Niro-The Wizard of Oz
• Kyle MacLachlan-Twin Peaks: The Return
• Ewan McGregor-Fargo
• Geoffrey Rush-Genius

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

• Laura Dern-Big Little Lies
• Nicole Kidman-Big Little Lies
• Jessica Lange-Feud
• Susan Sarandon-Feud
• Oprah Winfrey-The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Anderson-black-ish
• Aziz Ansari-Master of None
• Tituss Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
• Ty Burrell-Modern Family
• Sean Hayes-Will and Grace

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

• Uzo Aduba-Orange is the New Black
• Tracee Ellis Ross-black-ish
• Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep
• Lily Tomlin-Grace and Frankie

Best Actor in a Drama Series

• Jason Bateman-Ozark
• Sterling K. Brown-This Is Us
• Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
• David Harbour-Stranger Things
• Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul

Best Actress in a Drama Series

• Millie Bobby Brown-Stranger Things
• Claire Foy-The Crown
• Maggie Gyllenhaal-The Deuce
• Elisabeth Moss-The Handmaid’s Tale
• Robin Wright-House of Cards

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

• The Crown
• The Deuce
• Game of Thrones
• The Handmaid’s Tale
• Stranger Things

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

• Black-ish
• Modern Family
• Orange is the New Black
• Veep
• Will and Grace

Best Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

• Game of Thrones
• Marvel’s The Defenders
• Stranger Things
• The Walking Dead
• The Handmaid’s Tale