26th Screen Actors Guild Predictions

Tonight, the Screen Actors Guild will announce its winners for its 26th annual awards ceremony. And while several of the categories may very well be “chalk,” the Best Ensemble prize could very well decide who will compete with 1917 for Best Picture at the Oscars.

Before we get to Best Ensemble, let’s break down the rather obvious acting categories. At this point, two of the categories are done deals, and two are fairly likely with a slight chance for an upset. In terms of the locks, you’d be crazy to select anyone other than Joaquin Phoenix and Brad Pitt. They have their journey to the Oscars painted in gold. The same could be said for Renée Zellweger and Laura Dern, who are almost as likely, but face stiff competition from Scarlett Johansson (who could benefit from being a double nominee) and Jennifer Lopez (who could very well benefit from her recent Oscar snub, although voting ended before all that). However, I’m not confident enough in an upset to bet against the stats here. Expect Phoneix, Pitt, Zellweger, and Dern to be your four SAG winners. I’d also say Ford v Ferrari is your Stunt Ensemble frontrunner – there’s a real animosity towards Marvel in this category, and there aren’t really “stunts” in Joker, The Irishman, or Hollywood. Which brings us to Best Ensemble. Now, there are basically four films in contention for this prize (Bombshell is happy to be here), any of which would make them a contender for Best Picture. There’s Jojo Rabbit, the crowd pleaser with one of the greatest young ensembles of all time. There’s The Irishman, which features a veritable who’s who of aging legends. There’s Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood, which features a litany of modern-day stars often playing other famous stars. And then there’s Parasite, the little film that could with one of the best ensembles you’ll see all year. Honestly, I would cut this race down to Hollywood vs. Parasite, as these are the films that have the most buzz behind them. But I can only choose one. And while I’d love for Parasite to receive this win, to put it in contention with 1917, I think it’ll be HollywoodTarantino has a history of winning this award, and it’s still the best bet to beat 1917. I just want my support for Parasite on the record in case it pulls off the upset.

 

If you thought Film was a cakewalk, wait until you see the Television categories. These are pretty much all slam-dunks, with the exception of one or two close races. Obvious frontrunners like Michelle Williams, Olivia Colman, and the ever-endearing Phoebe Waller-Bridge will absolutely dominate their categories, and Fleabag and The Crown should win the Ensemble prizes with relative ease. But after that, things get tricky. For example, Best Actor – Miniseries or TV Movie will feature yet another battle between Jharrel Jerome and Jared Harris, which I think will go to Harris because character actors fare better at the SAGs (I’m personally pulling for Jerome). And unless beloved legends Tony Shalhoub and Michael Douglas end up winning Best Actor – Comedy Series, I would imagine this would be Bill Hader’s year. Which brings us to Best Actor – Drama Series. This is such a weird group of five, it’s almost impossible to predict a winner. The Morning Show is considered a guilty pleasure, This Is Us has fallen off most radars, and David Harbour just doesn’t seem like a winner for Stranger Things. The smart money is on a contest between Harbour and Sterling K. Brown, but I’m going for an upset. Everyone agrees the best part of the The Morning Show is Billy Crudup’s performance as Cory Ellison, the producer of the eponymous show. Based on his years of hard work and supporting roles, I think he’ll pull off a surprise upset here to win the day. Oh, and Watchmen is a lock for Best Stunt Ensemble – it’s the hot new property with amazing stunt work.

So that’s where we’re at going into tonight’s awards. The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards will premiere tonight on TNT and TBS at 8:00 pm, and will once again be hostless. Robert De Niro will be the recipient of the SAG Life Achievement Award for his legendary career to date. You can see my predictions below, and you can follow along right here at The Sacred Wall tonight, starting at 8:00, as I update the winners in real time. You can see my predictions below, marked with a *.

Film

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

  • Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Taron Egerton – Rocketman
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker *

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

  • Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Lupita Nyong’o – Us
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renée Zellweger – Judy *

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy
  • Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood *

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story *
  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
  • Nicole Kidman – Bombshell
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Best Ensemble

  • Bombshell
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood *
  • Parasite

Best Stunt Ensemble – Film

  • Avengers: Endgame
  • Ford v Ferrari *
  • The Irishman
  • Joker
  • Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood

Television 

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Mahershala Ali – True Detective
  • Russell Crowe – The Loudest Voice
  • Jared Harris – Chernobyl *
  • Jharrel Jerome – When They See Us
  • Sam Rockwell – Fosse/Verdon

Best Female Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Patricia Arquette – The Act
  • Toni Collette – Unbelievable
  • Joey King – The Act
  • Emily Watson – Chernobyl
  • Michelle Williams – Fosse/Verdon *

Best Actor in a Drama Series

  • Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us
  • Steve Carell – The Morning Show
  • Billy Crudup – The Morning Show *
  • Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
  • David Harbour – Stranger Things

Best Female Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show
  • Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown
  • Olivia Colman – The Crown *
  • Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
  • Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Alan Arkin – The Kominsky Method
  • Michael Douglas – The Kominsky Method
  • Bill Hader – Barry *
  • Andrew Scott – Fleabag
  • Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Female Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Christina Applegate – Dead To Me
  • Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek
  • Phoebe Waller-Bridge – Fleabag *

Best Ensemble for a Drama Series

  • Big Little Lies
  • The Crown *
  • Game of Thrones
  • The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Stranger Things

Best Ensemble for a Comedy Series

  • Barry
  • Fleabag *
  • The Kominsky Method
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Schitt’s Creek

Best Stunt Ensemble – Television

  • Game of Thrones
  • GLOW
  • Stranger Things
  • The Walking Dead
  • Watchmen *

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