27th SAG Award Final Predictions

Tomorrow night, the 27th SAG Awards will officially christen the Oscar with its picks for the best performers of 2020. It’ll be an interesting ceremony: instead of the usual ballroom with bits and tributes and such, this year the ceremony will be an hour long, with winners recording their speeches in advance. A handful already know the winners; there are a few groups out there passing around alleged copies of the winners. I don’t know how trustworthy these sources are, and am doing my best to avoid spoilers. But nevertheless, despite the shortened, strange reality we’re now facing, I will be doing my best to cover it all in the name of the Oscar race. And that all starts with my predictions for who will win.

Let’s start with the acting race, which is about as obvious as you could ask for. The Male Actor races are pretty much sewn up, as Daniel Kaluuya and most-nominated-performer ever Chadwick Boseman are about to cakewalk to the awards. Neither of them have strong enough competition to topple their narratives, and if they lose to anyone (OK, maybe Riz Ahmed or Anthony Hopkins could make a late play), then we’ve witnessed the most stunning upset in SAG history. But I doubt that will come to pass. No, instead we must look to the Female Actor categories for the mystery, as both categories are wide-open, and whoever wins will instantly become the frontrunner. Female Supporting Actor is probably the easiest of the two – the only two performers to hit all the marks thus far are Maria Bakalova and Glenn Close. Close is beloved by her fellow actors, and has a strong chance of winning both SAG and the Oscar, but I can’t help but wonder…is this the year we have a comedy winner? SAG has always been comedy friendly – Johnny Depp won for Jack Sparrow back in 2003. I can see Bakalova getting the votes, and even the win. It’s a tough one to watch, but I give the edge to Tutar Sagdiyev.

And then there’s Female Leading Actor. Any of these five actresses could pull off the win (OK, maybe not Amy Adams, but it’s not impossible). Viola Davis is beloved, Vanessa Kirby did Big Acting, and Carey Mulligan and Frances McDormand are in the most beloved films of the ceremony that also can’t win any other awards. I think we can eliminate Kirby – she’s kind of happy to be here. And while one of the press releases hinted at a Davis win – which would be truly exciting, and an important moment culturally – I don’t think Ma Rainey has the widespread support needed to put Davis in the two-time winners circle. Which leaves Mulligan and McDormand. It’ll be interesting to see who wins here, as a McDormand win would make her the first threepeat in history. But I’m personally expecting a Mulligan win, even if she doesn’t win at the Oscars. Promising Young Woman boasts the type of performance the SAG Awards love – daring, crowd-pleasing, and emotionally rich. I give her the edge in a tough, tough crowd (keep an eye on McDormand or Davis, though – I highly expect to be wrong).

Which brings us to Best Ensemble, which is likely going to be a two-way race between the Best Picture nominees: Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Logic dictates it will be Chicago 7. On average, the big winner is the film with the most SAG actors giving big, terrific performances – see: The Help, Inglousious Basterds, etc. But there’s been a recent trend of late where the ensemble prize has gone to smaller films, where the ensemble is a family of sorts and sees everyone hitting their mark. That’s what last year’s Parasite did, and to an extent, that’s what 2018’s Black Panther did (the ensemble prize mostly went to the royal family and a few side characters). I’m going out on a limb and picking Minari, which I think has a much stronger chance of riding actor love to Best Picture than Chicago does. After all, that’s why we follow awards like this: what film has the best chance at Best Picture, and can use this as a stepping stone? It’ll be close, but look to Minari for the big win.

Thankfully, the TV awards will be much easier to predict. Mark Ruffalo and Anya Taylor-Joy have been dominating all season, and will easily win both of the Miniseries/TV Movie prizes. In terms of Comedy, Jason Sudeikis is going to cakewalk to the Best Male Actor prize, while Catherine O’Hara will face stiff competition from Kaley Cuoco for Best Female Comedic Actor, but likely emerge victorious. And Best Male Dramatic Actor will probably go to Josh O’Connor, a potential sign of a Crown sweep. Hell, I’ll eat a shoe if The Crown loses Best Ensemble. But here’s where things tend to get interesting: Best Female Dramatic Actor, and Best Ensemble in a Comedy. You see, Best Female Dramatic Actor is a bloodbath of three actresses from The Crown and two actresses from Ozark. That’s vote splitting all around. Normally, if just two performers go head to head, it’s more likely that one will still emerge victorious – see Ty Burrell over Eric Stonestreet for Modern Family. But three? That’s how Al Pacino loses for The Godfather to Joel Grey. I think Julia Garner, who is beloved in the industry, will eek out the win, thanks to Corrin and Anderson cancelling each other out (and Colman likely losing votes to both of them). As for Comedy Ensemble, Schitt’s Creek should have this in the bag, but it’ll be close – not only is Ted Lasso beloved, but they’re performing the opening skit. That’s not something they give to a show that doesn’t have a chance. I’m still sticking with the Creek, but be wary…an upset could be brewing.

So that brings us up to speed with this year’s SAG Predictions. Throw in Mulan and Cobra Kai in the Stunt categories, and you have yourself a show. The SAG Awards will be “presented” tomorrow on TNT and TBS at 9:00 pm in a one-hour celebration. I’ll try to have winners in real-time. See you then, and once again, here are your nominees. Projected winners marked with a *.

Film

Best Male Actor In A Leading Role

  • Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Father
  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom  *
  • Gary Oldman – Mank
  • Steven Yeun – Minari

Best Female Actor In A Leading Role

  • Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
  • Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
  • Frances McDormand – Nomadland
  • Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman  *

Best Male Actor In A Supporting Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
  • Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah  *
  • Jared Leto – The Little Things
  • Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night In Miami…

Best Female Actor In A Supporting Actor

  • Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm  *
  • Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
  • Olivia Colman – The Father
  • Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari
  • Helena Zengel – News of the World

Best Ensemble

  • Da 5 Bloods
  • Minari  *
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • One Night In Miami…

Best Stunt Ensemble

  • Da 5 Bloods
  • Mulan  *
  • News of the World
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Wonder Woman 1984

TV

Best Male Actor In A Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Bill Camp – The Queen’s Gambit
  • Daveed Diggs – Hamilton
  • Hugh Grant – The Undoing
  • Ethan Hawke – The Good Lord Bird
  • Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much Is True  *

Best Female Actor In A Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Cate Blanchett – Mrs. America
  • Micaela Cole – I May Destroy You
  • Nicole Kidman – The Undoing
  • Anya Taylor-Joy – The Queen’s Gambit  *
  • Kerry Washington – Little Fires Everywhere

Best Male Actor In A Drama Series

  • Jason Bateman – Ozark
  • Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us
  • Josh O’Connor – The Crown  *
  • Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
  • Regé-Jean Page – Bridgerton

Best Female Actor In A Drama Series

  • Gillian Anderson – The Crown
  • Olivia Colman – The Crown
  • Emma Corrin – The Crown
  • Julia Garner – Ozark  *
  • Laura Linney – Ozark

Best Male Actor In A Comedy Series

  • Nicholas Hoult – The Great
  • Dan Levy – Schitt’s Creek
  • Eugene Levy – Schitt’s Creek
  • Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso  *
  • Ramy Youssef – Ramy

Best Female Actor In A Comedy Series

  • Christina Applegate – Dead To Me
  • Linda Cardellini – Dead To Me
  • Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
  • Annie Murphy – Schitt’s Creek
  • Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek  *

Best Comedy Ensemble

  • Dead To Me
  • The Flight Attendant
  • The Great
  • Schitt’s Creek  *
  • Ted Lasso

Best Drama Ensemble

  • Better Call Saul
  • Bridgerton
  • The Crown  *
  • Lovecraft CountrY
  • Ozark

Best TV Stunt Ensemble

  • The Boys
  • Cobra Kai  *
  • Lovecraft Country
  • The Mandalorian
  • Westworld

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