70th Primetime Emmy Awards Final Predictions

Tonight, Colin Jost and Michael Che will do their best to oversee one of the best Emmys lineups in history. How will it all break down? I have some thoughts to offer below.

Starting with Comedy, it really seems to be a three way race. Atlanta and Barry seem to sit at the forefront of the race in most categories, with The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel playing spoiler. Now, this is a challenging field, as both shows have something that appeals to Emmy voters, and both are the visions of talented auteurs who were in control in front of and behind the camera. Any of these shows breaking through wouldn’t be a massive surprise, and that’s why I believe the Emmys are going to split the vote. I think Bill Hader’s weird little dramedy about acting, PTSD, and consequences will end up earning the actor his first acting Emmy (upending reigning champ Donald Glover), as well as awards for first-time nominee Henry Winkler (that sounds wrong) and the script for one of the year’s best episodes, “Loud, Fast, and Keep It Going.” Meanwhile, Atlanta will take home the prize for Best Direction for the insane “Teddy Perkins,” as well as the Top Prize for Best Comedy. As for Mrs. Maisel, expect it to win Best Actress in a Comedy Series, considering reigning champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus is out of the running. And naturally, Kate McKinnon will win for a third year straight for her exciting and stunning work on Saturday Night Live.

Meanwhile, the Drama race is a little more challenging. While Gem of Thrones has often been the winner in this category, its absence last year allowed for The Handmaid’s Tale to take over as champion. With both eligible this year, the question remains: which one will take home the prize? Or will the concluded Americans or revamping Crown swoop in to knock them both off their perch? On paper, it would seem that Handmaid’s Tale has the edge – it has more nominations, and it won Guest Actress already at the Creative Arts Awards (undeservedly beating Diana Rigg, but I digress). However, we’re not dealing with paper. We’re dealing with reality, a reality where season 2 of The Handmaid’s Tale disappointed people. And that’s why I believe that Game of Thrones will return to Emmy glory, taking home Best Drama, alongside expected awards Best Supporting Actor (for Peter Dinklage, obviously) and Best Direction (here, I assume, for the well-executed “Dragon and the Wolf”). However, don’t expect The Handmaid’s Tale to go home empty handed – it will still presumably win Best Writing, and I hope to God that Ann Dowd continues winning for her role as Aunt Lydia. She’s the best part of the show. Best Actor will, obviously, go once again to Sterling K. Brown for his wonderful work on This Is Us. And what of Best Actress, which features the blood bath between Claire Foy and Elisabeth Moss. Moss is reigning champion, while Foy is having a banner year, and quite frankly, it could really go either way. Which is why I refuse to pick between the two. Instead, I’m going with my “Go Big or Go Home” selection of Sandra Oh for Killing Eve. The show has quickly become a cult favorite, Oh is beloved by everyone, and if Tatiana Maslany can ride fan support all the way to Emmy glory two years ago, surely Oh can do it here. While the upset is unlikely, I’d rather be risky and right than safe and wrong any day of the week.

And finally, we have the Limited Series categories. This field should be somewhat simpler than the rest, thanks to the dominating presence of The Assassination of Gianni Versace. It should walk away with Best Limited Series and Best Actor for Darren Criss. However, from there, things get a little more challenging. Even Criss isn’t the lock he should be, thanks to a late push for Jesse Plemons and U.S.S. Callister. However, I do think that Versace will win here, as well as Best Supporting Actress for Judith Light, while Callister will instead take home Best Writing. Meanwhile, Best Actress should be a cakewalk for Laura Dern, whose work in The Tale is legendary, but who knows? If the Emmys are really into Godless (as they may be), they could give it to Michelle Dockrey. Whether or not they do, Godless will easily take home Best Supporting Actor for Jeff Daniels. And finally, we have Best Directing, which should give the Emmys a chance to make up for one of their greatest mistakes: not awarding David Lynch for his impeccable work on Twin Peaks. Peaks should win Best Direction of a Miniseries, and Lynch should finally earn his first award as one of our greatest directors.

Well, that wraps up my final predictions. The ceremony begins tonight at 8:00 pm, and I’ll be live blogging it all right here! See you then.

Drama Series

  • The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Game of Thrones  *
  • This Is Us
  • The Crown
  • The Americans
  • Stranger Things
  • Westworld

Comedy Series

  • Atlanta  *
  • Barry
  • Black-ish
  • Curb Your Enthusiasm
  • GLOW
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Silicon Valley
  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Limited Series

  • The Alienist
  • The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story  *
  • Genius: Picasso
  • Godless
  • Patrick Melrose

Variety Sketch Series

  • Saturday Night Live
  • Portlandia  *
  • Drunk History
  • Tracey Ullman’s Show
  • At Home with Amy Sedaris
  • I Love You, America

Variety Talk Series

  • The Daily Show With Trevor Noah
  • Full Frontal With Samantha Bee
  • Jimmy Kimmel Live
  • Last Week Tonight with John Oliver  *
  • Late Late Show with James Corden
  • Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Reality Competition

  • The Amazing Race
  • American Ninja Warrior
  • Project Runway
  • RuPaul’s Drag Race
  • Top Chef
  • The Voice  * 

Lead Actor in a Drama Series:

  • Jason Bateman – Ozark
  • Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us  *
  • Ed Harris – Westworld
  • Matthew Rhys – The Americans
  • Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us
  • Jeffrey Wright – Westworld

Lead Actress in a Drama Series:

  • Claire Foy – The Crown
  • Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black
  • Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Sandra Oh – Killing Eve  *
  • Keri Russell – The Americans
  • Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series:

  • Donald Glover – Atlanta
  • Bill Hader – Barry  *
  • Anthony Anderson – Black-ish
  • William H. Macy – Shameless
  • Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm
  • Ted Danson – The Good Place

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series:

  • Pamela Adlon – Better Things
  • Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel  *
  • Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish
  • Allison Janney – Mom
  • Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie
  • Issa Rae – Insecure

Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie:

  • Antonio Banderas – Genius: Picasso
  • Darren Criss – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story  *
  • Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose
  • Jeff Daniels – The Looming Tower
  • John Legend – Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert
  • Jesse Plemons – Black Mirror: USS Callister

Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie:

  • Jessica Biel – The Sinner
  • Laura Dern – The Tale  *
  • Michelle Dockery – Godless
  • Edie Falco – Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders
  • Regina King – Seven Seconds
  • Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Cult

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

  • Nikolaj Coster-Waldau – Game of Thrones
  • Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones  *
  • Joseph Fiennes – The Handmaid’s Tale
  • David Harbour – Stranger Things
  • Mandy Patinkin – Homeland
  • Matt Smith – The Crown

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

  • Alexis Bledel – The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things
  • Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale  *
  • Lena Headey – Game of Thrones
  • Vanessa Kirby – The Crown
  • Thandie Newton – Westworld
  • Yvonne Strahovski – The Handmaid’s Tale

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Louie Anderson – Baskets
  • Alec Baldwin – Saturday Night Live
  • Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
  • Brian Tyree Henry – Atlanta
  • Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Kenan Thompson – Saturday Night Live
  • Henry Winkler – Barry  *

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Zazie Beetz – Atlanta
  • Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Aidy Bryant – Saturday Night Live
  • Betty Gilpin – GLOW
  • Leslie Jones – Saturday Night Live
  • Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live  *
  • Laurie Metcalf – Roseanne
  • Megan Mullally – Will and Grace

Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Jeff Daniels – Godless  *
  • Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
  • John Leguizamo – Waco
  • Ricky Martin – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  • Édgar Ramirez – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  • Michael Stuhlbarg – The Looming Tower
  • Finn Wittrock – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Sara Bareilles – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
  • Penelope Cruz – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  • Judith Light – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story  *
  • Adina Porter – American Horror Story: Cult
  • Merritt Wever – Godless
  • Letitia Wright – Black Mirror: Black Museum

Writing for a Comedy Series

  • Atlanta – “Alligator Man” by Donald Glover
  • Atlanta – “Barbershop” by Stefani Robinson
  • Barry – “Chapter One: Make Your Mark” by Alec Berg & Bill Hader
  • Barry – “Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going” by Liz Sarnoff  *
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Pilot” by Amy Sherman-Palladino
  • Silicon Valley – “Fifty-One Percent” by Alec Berg

Writing for a Drama Series

  • The Americans – “START” by Joel Fields & Joe Weisberg
  • The Crown – “Mystery Man” by Peter Morgan
  • Game of Thrones – “The Dragon and the Wolf” by David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
  • The Handmaid’s Tale – “June” by Bruce Miller  *
  • Killing Eve – “Nice Face” by Phoebe Waller-Bridge
  • Stranger Things – “Chapter Nine: The Gate” by The Duffer Brothers

Writing for a Variety Series

  • Full Frontal with Samantha Bee  *
  • Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
  • Late Night with Seth Meyers
  • The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
  • Saturday Night Live

Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

  • American Vandal – “Clean Up” by Kevin & Matthew McManus
  • The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “House By The Lake” by Tom Rob Smith
  • Black Mirror: USS Callister by William Bridges & Charlie Brooker  *
  • Godless by Scott Frank
  • Patrick Melrose by David Nicholls
  • Twin Peaks by Mark Frost & David Lynch

Directing for a Comedy Series

  • Atlanta – “FUBU” by Donald Glover
  • Atlanta – “Teddy Perkins” by Hiro Murai  *
  • Barry – “Chapter One: Make Your Mark” by Bill Hader
  • The Big Bang Theory – “The Bow Tie Symmetry” by Mark Cendrowski
  • GLOW – “Pilot” by Jesse Peretz
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Pilot” by Amy Sherman-Palladino
  • Silicon Valley – “Initial Coin Offering” by Mike Judge

Directing for a Drama Series

  • The Crown – “Paterfamilias” by Stephen Daldry
  • Game of Thrones – “Beyond the Wall” by Alan Taylor
  • Game of Thrones – “The Dragon and the Wolf” by Jeremy Podeswa  *
  • The Handmaid’s Tale – “After” by Kari Skogland
  • Ozark – “The Toll” by Jason Bateman
  • Ozark – “Tonight We Improve” by Daniel Sackheim
  • Stranger Things – “Chapter Nine: The Gate” by The Duffer Brothers

Directing for a Variety Series

  • Full Frontal with Samantha Bee – “Episode 2061” by Andre Allen
  • Last Week Tonight with John Oliver – “Episode 421” by Paul Pennolino
  • The Late Late Show with James Corden – “Episode 0416” by Tim Mancinelli
  • The Late Show with Stephen Colbert – “Episode 438” by Jim Hoskinson
  • Portlandia – “Riot Spray” by Carrie Brownstein
  • Saturday Night Live – “Donald Glover” by Don Roy King   * 

Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

  • The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “The Man Who Would Be Vogue” by Ryan Murphy
  • Godless by Scott Frank
  • Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert by David Leveaux & Alex Rudzinski
  • The Looming Tower – “9/11” by Craig Zisk
  • Paterno by Barry Levinson
  • Patrick Melrose by Edward Berger
  • Twin Peaks by David Lynch   *

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