71st Tony Award Predictions

As much as everyone is tired at this point of Hamilton, we really are still living in its shadow. I mean this in the best possible way, as Broadway has experienced a phenomenal year, thanks to great plays and musicals across the board. This makes for excellent viewing in New York, and an excellent Tony Awards in June, but it’s gonna be hell to try and predict it.

Every category, from Best Play to Best Leading Actress to the super-sized Best Musical has fifteen contenders competing for five spots. I can’t think of any way to start this than to just get down to it. Best Play has five plays in contention, including Pulitzer-winner Sweat to British farce The Play That Goes Wrong to the latecomer A Doll’s House, Part 2. I expect all three to make it in, as well as Oslo to beat out Indecent and Heisenberg. In the acting categories, Best Actress is stacked to the brim. Hollywood superstars Laurie Metcalf, Allison Janney, Cate Blanchett, Laura Linney, Sally Field, Jennifer Ehle, Janet McTeer, and Diane Lane are all in the running for five spots. I’d love to see beloved actress Mary-Louise Parker get a nomination, but I think the first five names listed present the best chance. It would be great to see Blanchett win and inch closer to an EGOT, but I’d expect Metcalf and Janney, television and film’s greatest character actresses, to battle it out for their first Tony Award. Meanwhile, the male field has its share of theatre and Hollywood actors. Far and away, the frontrunner is Kevin Kline, who is playing the title role in my favorite Noel Coward play, Present Laughter. It’s a meaty role for a flamboyant actor, and it may be the role the talented Kline was born to play. His biggest competition would be thespian Jefferson Mays in Oslo and superstar Mark Ruffalo in The Price. After that, it’s anyone’s guess, although I’m predicting Tony favorites Denis Arndt and Joe Mantello, due to their performances in beloved plays and their standing amongst the Tony community.

The musical race, meanwhile, is a whole different ballgame. At present, I count no less than ten musicals that have significant backing for a nomination. This includes the star-studded War Paint, the critical favorite drama Come From Away, and the incredibly fun Bandstand. Indeed, many people see Come From Away to be a frontrunner, but this is where I’m going out on a limb and predicting an upset. I think this will be the snub of the Tony Awards, missing out on many of the top awards. Once that’s eliminated, you’re left with three locks. Everyone’s talking about Dear Evan Hansen, a pop culture phenomenon with music by the team behind the Oscar winning La La Land, so I’d say you can call that the eventual winner. After that, you have the surprisingly good Groundhog Day, which just finished wowing London before heading over to our side of the pond. And playing dark horse is the War and Peace electro-pop musical Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812. After that, it’s wide open. Personally, I would put my money on one of the two female-led musical adaptations, Anastasia and Amelie. Amelie has the cute factor backing it up, as well as the star power in Hamilton’s Phillipa Soo, but I’m putting my money on Anastasia for three reasons: one, it’s a bigger spectacle; two, the music is already well known; and three, one of my biggest articles for this site was the announcement of the stage show, so I have a sense of loyalty. That’s a bad way of predicting, but you’ve gotta go with the gut. Lead Actor is fairly simple, with two locks, two likelies, and a wild card. The two locks are Ben Platt for Evan Hansen and Andy Karl for Groundhog Day. Both men are incredibly talented and lovable performers with followers in Hollywood on top of the theater (Platt is famous for the beloved Pitch Perfect series, while Karl had a long-running stint on Law and Order: SVU). After them, it is likely that Christian Borle is nominated for his performance in Falsettos, while David Hyde Pierce is nominated for his role in Hello, Dolly! Both men have a strong following, and really helped anchor their renowned shows, even if they aren’t actually the biggest draw. That leaves one more spot, and if I’m going to make my guess based on star power and the beloved nature of the shows, that leaves me with one name: Josh Groban. That’s right, the beautiful voiced superstar has lent his talents to Natasha, Pierre, and if the show is widely loved, I bet he end up getting a nomination tomorrow morning. This likely means that Jon Jon Briones, one of the most acclaimed Engineers in history, won’t be nominated for Miss Saigon, but that’s the way the game works. At least he isn’t in the competitive field of Leading Actress in a Musical, which will see Bette Midler, Christine Ebersole, Patti LuPone, and Laura Osnes all competing for a nomination, let alone a win. And they’re probably wiping their bows of sweat knowing that Glenn Close is ineligible for Sunset Boulevard. And then there’s the newcomers! Look, someone is going home empty handed this year, and in my opinion, due to a split in the vote, as well as lukewarm reviews, LuPone and Ebersole will be going home without a nomination. This is likely going to be proven incorrect, but it’s a gut feeling I have. Midler, meanwhile, is most likely a lock. Her Dolly is raking in the bucks, and I think that if she isn’t the frontrunner, she’s at least going to be nominated. After that, it’s a matter of which newcomers get in. Obviously, the big shows get in, such as Denee Benton from Natasha, Pierre, Christy Altomare (who is great) from Anastasia, and Ms. Soo from Amelie. This leaves one more spot, and based on the raves about her, I’m going to guess that this spot goes to the complete newcomer Eva Noblezada, who absolutely steals Miss Saigon. These are my ballsiest predictions, but I’m going to stand by them until I’m proven wrong tomorrow morning.

The revivals are a much simpler fare. There are only five eligible musicals, and once you realize that Falsettos and Hello Dolly are locks, Sunset Boulevard is ineligible in certain categories, and Cats is, well, Cats, you’re left with the well-received, well-liked Miss Saigon. And the play category features August Wilson, Tennessee Williams, Arthur Miller and classics like The Little Foxes, it’s an open and shut category. And I won’t bore you with details on the Featured Actor categories, but I will say you should expect to hear names like Danny DeVito, Nathan Lane, Adam Rannells, Gavin Creel, Cynthia Nixon, and Tony Shalhoub.

You can see the full list of predictions below, and you can expect the actual nominations as soon as possible tomorrow morning.

Best Play

• A Doll’s House, Part 2
• Heisenberg
• Oslo
• The Play That Goes Wrong

Best Musical

• Anastasia
• Dear Evan Hansen
• Groundhog Day
• Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

Best Revival of a Play

• The Glass Menagerie
• Jitney
• The Little Foxes
• The Price

Best Revival of a Musical

• Falsettos
• Hello Dolly!
• Miss Saigon

Best Actor in a Play

• Dennis Arndt-Heisenberg
• Kevin Kline-Present Laughter
• Joe Mantello-The Glass Menagerie
• Jefferson Mays-Oslo
• Mark Ruffalo-The Price

Best Actress in a Play

• Cate Blanchett-The Present
• Sally Field-The Glass Menagerie
• Allison Janney-Six Degrees of Separation
• Laura Linney-The Little Foxes
• Laurie Metcalf-A Doll’s House, Part 2

Best Actor in a Musical

• Christian Borle-Falsettos
• Josh Groban-Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812
• Andy Karl-Groundhog Day
• David Hyde Pierce-Hello Dolly!
• Ben Platt-Dear Evan Hanson

Best Actress in a Musical

• Christy Altomare-Anastasia
• Denée Benton-Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812
• Bette Midler-Hello Dolly!
• Eva Noblezada-Miss Saigon
• Phllipa Soo-Amelie

Best Featured Actor in a Play

• Michael Aronov-Oslo
• Danny DeVito-The Price
• Nathan Lane-The Front Page
• Tony Shalhoub-The Price
• John Douglas Thompson-Jitney

Best Featured Actress in a Play

• Madison Ferris-The Glass Menagerie
• Johanna Day-Sweat
• Jayne Houdyshell-A Doll’s House Part 2
• Cynthia Nixon-The Little Foxes
• Sherie Renee Scott-The Front Page

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

• Nick Cordero-A Bronx Tale
• Gavin Creel-Hello, Dolly!
• Lucas Steele-Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812
• Andrew Rannells-Falsettos
• Brandon Uranowitz-Falsettos

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

• Kate Baldwin-Hello, Dolly!
• Stephanie J. Block-Falsettos
• Jenn Colella-Come From Away
• Rachel Bay Jones-Dear Evan Hanson
• Mary Beth Peil-Anastastia

Best Director of a Play

• Mark Bell-The Play That Goes Wrong
• Mark Brokaw-Heisenberg
• Sam Gold-A Doll’s House, Part 2
• Ruben Santiago-Hudson-Jitney
• Kate Whoriskey-Sweat

Best Director of a Musical

• Rachel Chavkin-Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812
• Michael Greif-Dear Evan Hansen
• James Lapine-Fasettos
• Darko Tresnjak-Anastasia
• Jerry Zaks-Hello Dolly!

Best Book of a Musical

• Come From Away
• Dear Evan Hanson
• Groundhog Day
• Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

Best Music and Lyrics

• A Bronx Tale: The Musical
• Dear Evan Hanson
• Groundhog Day
• Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

Best Scenic Design of a Play

• The Front Page
• Jitney
• Oslo
• The Play That Goes Wrong

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

• A Bronx Tale The Musical
• Hello Dolly!
• Miss Saigon
• Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

Best Lighting Design of a Play

• Heisenberg
• Indecent
• Jitney
• Sweat

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

• Amelie
• Anastasia
• Dear Evan Hansen
• Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

Best Costume Design of a Play

• A Doll’s House, Part 2
• The Front Page
• Jitney
• Present Laughter

Best Costume Design of a Musical

• Anastasia
• Hello, Dolly!
• War Paint
• Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

Best Choreography

• Holiday Inn
• Hello Dolly!
• Groundhog Day
• Bandstand
• Anastasia

Best Orchestrations

• Miss Saigon
• Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812
• Hello, Dolly!
• Dear Evan Hansen