72nd Tony Award Predictions

Tonight, we will find out the winner of 72nd Annual Tony Awards. This is a remarkably challenging year, with many upsets certainly in the stars. So I thought in the few hours we have remaining, we could take a look at what’s in contention, what’s likely to upset, and exactly how influential the children are as Harry Potter and SpongeBob look to sweep.

Let’s start by looking at the plays. It’s easy to predict the technical awards: with Harry Potter and the Cursed Child and Angels in America in contention, you can expect these two to go head to head, as well as to win Best Play and Best Revival, respectively. Personally, I think the visually stunning Cursed Child to take the most awards, but don’t be shocked in the timely, astounding Tony Kushner masterpiece to take home a few as well (look at lighting). It’s the acting awards where things will get interesting. Best Actress is pretty sewn up, as Glenda Jackson will likely finally become an Acting Triple Crown winner for her work in Three Tall Women. However, every other category features a deadlock, with Andrew Garfield taking on Denzel Washington and Jamie Parker, Nathan Lane taking on Anthony Boyle and the Lobby Hero boys, and a wide open field in Best Featured Actress. Personally, I think that Angels will take the male categories, with Garfield’s acclaimed take and Lane’s scenery-chewing sewing it up, while Cursed Child’s Noma Dumezweni will likely take the split field in the latter category.

Meanwhile, the musical field has a much tougher race breaking out. There doesn’t seem to be a clear favorite, with The Band’s Visit popular in the major fields while SpongeBob Squarepants and Mean Girls have success in the technical categories. Now, as a rule of thumb, when this happens, I like to split the field: let SpongeBob take the deserved technical awards (outside of Costumes, which will likely go to My Fair Lady), let Tina Fey win for Mean Girls, and let The Band’s Visit take the major awards. I predict that The Band’s Visit will win Best Score, Best Direction, and Best Musical to boot. Meanwhile, the Revival category seems to be a dead heat between Carousel and Once On This Island, but having heard the former’s soundtrack this weekend, I predict that Carousel will win the award. However, once we get to the acting categories, things heat up again. There doesn’t seem to be a favorite in any one category. For this reason, I’m going to predict The Band’s Visit to have some success, winning a heated Best Featured Actor field, while I predict the fabulous Katrina Lenk will win a crowded Best Actress field thanks to her wide range of talents. As for Best Actor, things are a dead heat between two former nominees that are long overdue: Joshua Henry and Tony Shalhoub. I’ve gone back and forth between the two, based on talent and popularity, but in the end, I’ve given the edge to Henry, who should have three Tonys already and is truly mesmerizing as Billy Bigelow. As for Featured Actress, while the Carousel girls are the heavy favorites, and Ashley Park is a true scene-stealer, it’s hard to deny that Diana Rigg is having a moment, and will likely win the award for her work in My Fair Lady.

I hope you all enjoy the Tonys this year! There won’t be a live blog, as I will be at the Paul Simon concert instead. However, I will be recording it, and you can expect a write-up tomorrow morning. Enjoy!

Best Play

  • The Children
  • Farinelli and The King
  • Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two   *
  • Junk
  • Latin History For Morons

Best Musical

  • The Band’s Visit   *
  • Frozen
  • Mean Girls
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical

Best Revival of a Play

  • Angels in America   *
  • Three Tall Women
  • The Iceman Cometh
  • Lobby Hero
  • Travesties 

Best Revival of a Musical

  • My Fair Lady
  • Once On This Island
  • Carousel   *

Best Actor in a Play

  • Andrew Garfield-Angels in America *
  • Tom Hollander-Travesties
  • Jamie Parker-Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
  • Mark Rylance-Farinelli and the King
  • Denzel Washington-The Iceman Cometh

Best Actress in a Play

  • Glenda Jackson-Three Tall Women *
  • Condola Rashad-Saint Joan
  • Lauren Ridloff-Children of a Lesser God
  • Amy Schumer-Meteor Shower

Best Actor in a Musical

  • Harry Hadden-Paton-My Fair Lady
  • Joshua Henry-Carousel *
  • Tony Shalhoub-The Band’s Visit
  • Ethan Slater-SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical

Best Actress in a Musical

  • Lauren Ambrose-My Fair Lady
  • Hailey Kilgore-Once On This Island
  • LaChanze-Summer: The Donna Summer Musical
  • Katrina Lenk-The Band’s Visit *
  • Taylor Louderman-Mean Girls
  • Jessie Mueller-Carousel

Best Featured Actor in a Play

  • Anthony Boyle-Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
  • Michael Cera-Lobby Hero
  • Brian Tyree Henry-Lobby Hero
  • Nathan Lane-Angels in America *
  • David Morse-The Iceman Cometh 

Best Featured Actress in a Play

  • Susan Brown-Angels in America
  • Noma Dumezweni-Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two *
  • Deborah Findlay-The Children
  • Denise Gough-Angels in America
  • Laurie Metcalf-Three Tall Women

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

  • Norbert Leo Butz-My Fair Lady
  • Alexander Gemignani-Carousel
  • Grey Henson-Mean Girls
  • Gavin Lee-SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical
  • Ari’el Stachel-The Band’s Visit *

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

  • Ariana DeBose-Summer: The Donna Summer Musical
  • Renée Fleming-Carousel
  • Lindsay Mendez-Carousel
  • Ashley Park-Mean Girls
  • Diana Rigg-My Fair Lady *

Best Director of a Play

  • Marianne Elliot-Angels in America
  • Joe Mantello-Three Tall Women
  • Patrick Marber-Travesties
  • John Tiffany-Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two *
  • George C. Wolfe-The Iceman Cometh

Best Director of a Musical

  • Michael Arden-Once On This Island
  • David Cromer-The Band’s Visit *
  • Tina Landau-SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical
  • Casey Nicholaw-Mean Girls
  • Bartlett Sher-My Fair Lady

Best Book of a Musical

  • The Band’s Visit
  • Frozen
  • Mean Girls   *
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical 

Best Original Score

  • Angels in America
  • The Band’s Visit   *
  • Frozen
  • Mean Girls
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical

Best Scenic Design In A Play

  • Three Tall Women
  • Farinelli and the King
  • Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two   *
  • The Iceman Cometh
  • Angels in America

Best Scenic Design in a Musical

  • Once On This Island
  • The Band’s Visit
  • Mean Girls
  • My Fair Lady
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical   *

Best Costume Design in a Play

  • Farinelli and the King
  • Angels in America
  • Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two   *
  • Three Tall Women
  • The Iceman Cometh

Best Costume Design in a Musical

  • Mean Girls
  • Once On This Island
  • Carousel
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical
  • My Fair Lady   *

Best Lighting Design in a Play

  • Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two   *
  • Angels in America
  • The Iceman Cometh
  • Farinelli and the King
  • Junk

Best Lighting Design in a Musical

  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical   *
  • Once On This Island
  • My Fair Lady
  • Carousel
  • The Band’s Visit

Best Sound Design in a Play

  • Travesties
  • Angels in America
  • Harry Potter and the Cursed Child: Parts One and Two *
  • 1984
  • The Iceman Cometh

Best Sound Design in a Musical

  • The Band’s Visit
  • Once On This Island
  • Carousel
  • Mean Girls
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical   *

Best Choreography

  • My Fair Lady
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical   *
  • Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two
  • Mean Girls
  • Carousel

Best Orchestrations

  • Mean Girls
  • SpongeBob Squarepants: The Musical   *
  • Once On This Island
  • The Band’s Visit
  • Carousel

Special Tony Awards

  • Bruce Springsteen
  • John Leguizamo

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