76th Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

Tomorrow morning, the Golden Globes will announce their nominations for the 76th ceremony. And as we look down on the precipice of the next phase of Oscar nominations, I thought I’d take a quick look at predicting the booziest awards show in town, in all their insane glory.

Who are the Hollywood Foreign Press Association? What do they want? This isn’t a bit – I’m actually asking. Nobody knows who these people are, or why they do weird things, like vote for Get Out and The Martian in Best Comedy and nominate objectively bad performances in order to hang out with celebrities. All we know is they show up once a year, offer free booze in exchange for having to sit through a Ricky Gervais roast, and then go back to being invisible. So what films are they going to nominate? Well, I can tell you what won’t be happening: Roma for Best Picture – Drama. Due to an insane rule, Roma, the critical darling considered an Oscar frontrunner, is ineligible for the top prize due to being a foreign language film. This is an insane twist on the race, and will likely secure victory for Alfonso Cuarón in Best Director (where he is eligible). So, without Roma in the big race, what else will step in to fill their love? Well, the word on the street (and anyone who watched it knows) that A Star Is Born is deeply beloved, and considering the group already loves Bradley Cooper, you can expect it to be a major contender. Oddly, however, the film has decided to shy away from the tradition of films like Coal Miner’s Daughter, Ray, and Walk the Line to instead nominate the film in Best Drama. This is a dumb decision, but it’ll absolutely work – expect the darling to show up in Best Drama, Best Actor – Drama, Best Actress – Drama (Lady Gaga will ABSOLUTELY be nominated), Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Song for “Shallow,” and probably Best Screenplay, too. Other films the group loved include Bohemian Rhapsody (specifically Rami Malek, and also going drama), Mary Poppins Returns (expect it in Musical/Comedy, Best Actress, and Best Actor, which is where Lin-Manuel Miranda is competing this time around), and The Favourite (expect it in Best Musical/Comedy, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Actress for Colman, and Best Supporting Actress for at least Stone and maybe Rachel Weisz). Other films that should be strong include Vice (also competing in Musical/Comedy, and the HFPA loves Adam McKay), Green Book (this type of comedy is their bread-and-butter), and If Beale Street Could Talk (they’ll likely want to make it up to Barry Jenkins for Moonlight two years ago). And word on the street is that, individually, the group is in love with both the performances and the celebrity of Natalie Portman in Vox Lux, Nicole Kidman, just in general, Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex, and apparently Clint Eastwood in The Mule. Expect one or more of these performers to get in (I’m predicting all but Jones at the moment). However, don’t expect much love for First Reformed outside of Ethan Hawke – the Globes apparently hated it. They can nominate The Tourist but not First Reformed. Great.

In terms of the Oscar race, while the Globes are rarely ever death knells (remember when Aaron Taylor-Johnson) won in 2016 and then didn’t get nominated?), they can have a significant impact. And for the biggest risk of all, look no further than First Man. While the Globes definitely love Damien Chazelle (his last film holds the record for most Globes ever, going 7 for 7), First Man has been struggling all season, ever since its box office significantly underperformed. Now, that hasn’t stopped the Globes in the past  – Steve Jobs performed well in 2015, which also released in October to critical acclaim and audience letdown. However, if the Globes don’t act as I’m predicting – Best Drama, Best Actor for Ryan Gosling, and Best Director for Chazelle – then you can bet your sweet ass the film is out of the Oscar race, period. Outside of First Man‘s chances, the Globes will also likely help the Best Supporting Actor and Actress races: at least three to four of those performers will go on to the Oscars, and this is the best way to figure out who they are. Essentially, it will help us cut down the shortlists. And depending on how Best Drama shakes out, we’ll be able to find out if the Globes/Oscars will like something a little more sophisticated, funny, and charming, like Can You Ever Forgive Me?, or something daring, original, and culturally significant in Black Panther. There’s only room for one, and whichever one earns a spot here will go on to Oscar glory (I’m currently predicting the former, but am ready to switch at a moment’s notice). Oh, and keep your eyes on Best Comedy – it’s been a weaker year for the genre overall, meaning the HFPA will be open to having more fun with the nominations, like a potential nod for Elsie Fisher or Lily James for Best Actress.

As for television, things are simultaneously much easier and much harder to predict. For while the HFPA loves new shows – look at how well The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel did last year – these shows often don’t have staying power. Therefore, I’d say you can expect Maisel and This Is Us to return big, while HomecomingPose, and Killing Eve to break through. After that, it’s pretty much guesswork based on the past. With no new ingénues in Best Actress in a Comedy, expect Issa RaeRachel BresnahanTracee Ellis Ross, and Alison Brie to return, while the fifth spot will likely go to some sort of legend (I’m guessing Candice Bergen). And speaking of legends, expect the male actor side of things to be chock full of old-time legends, like Alan Arkin, Michael Douglas, and Henry Winkler. Similarly, if the actor in question is a celebrity of the highest order, expect their name to jump to the top of the list, like Julia Roberts, Benedict Cumberbatch, Hugh Grant, Jonah Hill, Jim Carrey, and especially Emma Stone and Amy Adams, whom the Globes will absolutely want to double nominate (both actresses will likely be nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a film). For Miniseries and TV Movies, they supposedly LOVE Patrick Melrose, The Assassination of Gianni Versace, and Sharp Objects. And due to the overall nature of his year, expect Brian Tyree Henry to earn a nomination here for Best Supporting Actor, as a testament to his year as a whole.

And that about wraps things up. The 76th Golden Globe nominations will be announced tomorrow at 8 a.m. by Terry Crews, Danai Gurira, Leslie Mann, and Christian Slater. I will be here posting the nominees in real time, and until then, you can see my full list of predictions below. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go prepare to summon my mortal enemy, the Guru Slayer.

Film

Best Drama

  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • First Man
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • A Star Is Born

Best Musical or Comedy

  • Crazy Rich Asians
  • Green Book
  • The Favourite
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Vice

Best Actor in a Drama

  • Bradley Cooper-A Star Is Born
  • Clint Eastwood-The Mule
  • Ryan Gosling-First Man
  • Ethan Hawke-First Reformed
  • Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy

  • Christian Bale-Vice
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda-Mary Poppins Returns
  • Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
  • Robert Redford-The Old Man and the Gun
  • John C. Reilly-Stan and Ollie

Best Actress in a Drama

  • Glenn Close-The Wife
  • Viola Davis-Widows
  • Lady Gaga-A Star Is Born
  • Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Natalie Portman-Vox Lux

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy

  • Emily Blunt-Mary Poppins Returns
  • Olivia Colman-The Favourite
  • Elsie Fisher-Eighth Grade
  • Lily James-Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
  • Constance Wu-Crazy Rich Asians

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali-Green Book
  • Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman
  • Sam Elliott-A Star Is Born
  • Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Michael B. Jordan-Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amy Adams-Vice
  • Nicole Kidman-Boy Erased
  • Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Margot Robbie-Mary Queen of Scots
  • Emma Stone-The Favourite

Best Director

  • Damien Chazelle-First Man
  • Bradley Cooper-A Star Is Born
  • Alfonso Cuarón-Roma
  • Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
  • Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman 

Best Screenplay

  • BlacKkKlansman
  • The Favourite
  • Green Book
  • A Star Is Born
  • Vice

Best Original Score

  • BlacKkKlansman
  • First Man
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Ready Player One

Best Original Song

  • All the Stars-Black Panther
  • A Place Called Slaughter Race-Ralph Breaks The Internet
  • Ashes-Deadpool 2
  • Shallow-A Star Is Born
  • Trip A Little Light Fantastic-Mary Poppins Returns

Best Animated Film

  • The Grinch
  • The Incredibles 2
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Burning
  • Capernaum
  • Cold War
  • Girl
  • Roma

TV

Best Drama Series

  • The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Homecoming
  • Killing Eve
  • Pose
  • This Is Us

Best Comedy Series

  • Atlanta
  • Barry
  • Black-ish
  • GLOW
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor in a Drama Series

  • Sterling K. Brown-This Is Us
  • Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul
  • Matthew Rhys-The Americans
  • Live Schreiber-Ray Donovan
  • Jeffrey Wright-Westworld

Best Actress in a Drama Series

  • Elisabeth Moss-The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Sandra Oh-Killing Eve
  • Julia Roberts-Homecoming
  • Keri Russell-The Americans
  • Evan Rachel Wood-Westworld 

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Anthony Anderson-black-ish
  • Jim Carrey-Kidding
  • Michael Douglas-The Kominsky Method
  • Donald Glover-Atlanta
  • Bill Hader-Barry

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Alison Brie-GLOW
  • Candice Bergen-Murphy Brown
  • Rachel Brosnahan-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Issa Rae-Insecure
  • Tracee Ellis Ross-black-ish 

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Antonio Banderas-Genius: Picasso
  • Darren Criss-The Assassination of Gianni Versace
  • Benedict Cumberbatch-Patrick Melrose
  • Hugh Grant-A Very English Scandal
  • Jonah Hill-Maniac

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Amy Adams-Sharp Objects
  • Hayley Atwell-Howards End
  • Laura Dern-The Tale
  • Regina King-Seven Seconds
  • Emma Stone-Maniac

Best Supporting Actor

  • Alan Arkin-The Kominsky Method
  • Brian Tyree Henry-Atlanta
  • Edgar Ramírez-The Assassination of Gianni Versace
  • Tony Shalhoub-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Henry Winkler-Barry

Best Supporting Actress

  • Alex Borstein-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Patricia Clarkson-Sharp Objects
  • Penelope Cruz-The Assassination of Gianni Versace
  • Laurie Metcalf-The Conners
  • Thandie Newton-Westworld

Best Miniseries/TV Movie

  • The Assassination of Gianni Versace
  • Maniac
  • Sharp Objects
  • The Tale
  • A Very English Scandal

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