76th Tony Award Predictions

I don’t do that many prediction pieces for the Tony Awards around these parts. It’s a messier business than the Oscars, or even the Emmys – shows are often announced a few months before the nominations, maybe even weeks, and ultimately boil down to four or five shows overperforming in weird, surprising ways. But I do love theater, and the Tonys, and do have some thoughts on how things will shake out. So here are my predictions for the 76^th Tony Awards, and who I think will be nominated in the top categories.

Starting with the musicals, this may end up being the most obvious field of the bunch. There’s Kimberly Akimbo, and there’s everything else. Expect the feel-good tale to sweep the nominations, in almost every category, with Victoria Clark, Bonnie Miligan, Steven Boyer, and Justin Cooley headlining the acting categories. I’d also expect Shucked and Some Like It Hot to earn key nominations and fight their way into the competition.

Shucked should make it based on the strength of its script, while Hot will thrive thanks to its cast – frequent nominee Christian Borle may get nominated, but look for Adrianna Hicks, Kevin Del Aguila, and especially non-binary lead J. Harrison Ghee to carry the show. After that, things get tricky. & Juliet should be enough of a box office hit to earn some nominations, including Best Musical. This leaves one slot for either the Neil Diamond musical A Beautiful Noise or the Scorsese adaptation New York, New York. Expect Noise’s Will Swenson to earn a nomination in Best Actor while New York, New York takes the final slot in Best Musical.

As for Best Musical Revival, things are a bit easier. There are only six shows in contention for four slots, one is a revue that showcases dancing, and the other was lambasted as a critical and commercial failure. So that leaves Aaron Sorkin’s reworked Camelot, the blockbuster revival of Into the Woods, Ben Platt’s renowned revival of Parade (which was harassed by anti-Semitic protesters), and the currently-thriving Sweeney Todd revival.

Camelot should earn a handful of nominations, mostly in Book and maybe an acting nod or two, while Parade should earn nominations for its two leads (the deserving Micaela Diamond). But look for the Sondheim duo to dominate here – Woods will likely sweep the acting categories with contenders like Brian D’Arcy James, Patina Miller, Sara Bareillis, and Gavin Creel, while Todd will earn nods for Groban and Ashford easily, and maybe even Garen Matarazzo. It’s a surprisingly good year for revivals, and the committee should reward accordingly.

Moving over to the plays, things are a bit trickier. And not just because Jodie Comer and Jessica Chastain are in a dead heat for Best Actress in an attempt to complete the Triple Crown of Acting. Best Play features a litany of shows struggling to fill a niche field, ranging from big titles (Tom Stoppard’s Leopoldstadt, Pulitzer Prize-winner Fat Ham) to known works (The Kite Runner, A Christmas Carol, Life of Pi) to big stars (Jodie Comer’s Prima Facie). Amongst the straight plays, I would say the five most likely nominees (across the board) are Leopoldstadt, Fat Ham, Life of Pi, Prima Facie, and Between Riverside and Crazy. Oh, and Anthony McCarten’s The Collaboration which may see Jeremy Pope finally win his first Tony.

As for Best Play Revival, it’s three shows leading the way and then a battle for that final slot. The all-Black cast Death of a Salesman has earned rave reviews, and should earn nods for Wendell Pierce, Sharon D. Clarke, and potentially the legendary André de Shields. Meanwhile, August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson has found such success that the production has already been tapped for the movie adaptation – look for John David Washington, Danielle Brooks, and especially Samuel L. Jackson to earn nominations. And as mentioned above, Jessica Chastain should lead A Doll’s House to a nomination. The final slot will be between Topdog/Underdog and Ohio State Murders – expect the former to earn the Revival nomination and Audra McDonald to show up in Best Actress.

We’ll find out tomorrow how these predictions shake out. I’ll have the nominations for you all as soon as I’m free from a screening, and will have some predictions later this month. In the meantime, you can see the full predictions below, and let’s transition seamlessly from the Oscars to the world of underpaid theater kids!

Best Play

• Between Riverside and Crazy
• Fat Ham
• Leopoldstadt
• Life of Pi
• Prima Facie

Best Musical

• & Juliet
• Kimberly Akimbo
• New York, New York
• Shucked
• Some Like It Hot

Best Revival of a Play

• Death of a Salesman
• A Doll’s House
• The Piano Lesson
• Ohio State Murders

Best Revival of a Musical

• Camelot
• Into the Woods
• Parade
• Sweeney Todd

Best Actor In A Play

• Sean Hayes – Good Night, Oscar
• Stephen McKinley Henderson – Between Riverside and Crazy
• Wendell Pierce – Death of a Salesman
• Marcel Spears – Fat Ham
• John David Washington – The Piano Lesson

Best Actor In A Musical

• Christian Borle – Some Like It Hot
• J. Harrison Ghee – Some Like It Hot
• Josh Groban – Sweeney Todd
• Ben Platt – Parade
• Will Swenson – A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical

Best Actress in a Play

• Jessica Chastain – A Doll’s House
• Jodie Comer – Prima Facie
• Laura Linney – Summer, 1976
• Audra McDonald – Ohio State Murders

Best Actress In A Musical

• Annaleigh Ashford – Sweeney Todd
• Sara Bareilles – Into the Woods
• Victoria Clark – Kimberly Akimbo
• Micaela Diamond – Parade
• Anna Uzele – New York, New York

Best Featured Actor In A Play

• André De Shields – Death of a Salesman
• Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
• David Krumholtz – Leopoldstadt
• Arian Moayed – A Doll’s House
• Brandon Uranowitz – Leopoldstadt

Best Featured Actor In A Musical

• Steven Boyer – Kimberly Akimbo
• Justin Cooley – Kimberly Akimbo
• Gavin Creel – Into the Woods
• Kevin Del Aguila – Some Like It Hot
• Alex Newell – Shucked

Best Featured Actress In A Play

• Danielle Brooks – The Piano Lesson
• Faye Castelow – Leopoldstadt
• Sharon D. Clarke – Death of a Salesman
• Nikki Crawford – Fat Ham
• Katy Sullivan – Cost of Living

Best Featured Actress In A Musical

• Robyn Hurder – A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical
• Alli Mauzey – Kimberly Akimbo
• Bonnie Milligan – Kimberly Akimbo
• NaTasha Yvette Williams – Some Like It Hot
• Betsy Wolfe – & Juliet

Best Director Of A Play

• Saheem Ali – Fat Ham
• LaTanya Richardson Jackson – The Piano Lesson
• Jamie Lloyd – A Doll’s House
• Patrick Marber – Leopoldstadt
• Max Webster – Life Of Pi

Best Director Of A Musical

• Lear DeBessonet – Into the Woods
• Jessica Stone – Kimberly Akimbo
• Michael Arden – Parade
• Casey Nicholaw – Some Like It Hot
• Thomas Kail – Sweeney Todd

Best Original Score

• Bad Cinderella
• Kimberly Akimbo
• Life of Pi
• Shucked
• Some Like It Hot

Best Book Of A Musical

• & Juliet
• Camelot
• Kimberly Akimbo
• Shucked
• Some Like It Hot

Best Scenic Design in a Play

• Death of a Salesman
• The Collaboration
• Leopoldstadt
• Life of Pi
• Prima Facie

Best Scenic Design in a Musical

• & Juliet
• Into the Woods
• Kimberly Akimbo
• Some Like It Hot
• Sweeney Todd

Best Costume Design in a Play

• A Christmas Carol
• Death of a Salesman
• Leopoldstadt
• Life of Pi
• Summer, 1976

Best Costume Design in a Musical

• & Juliet
• Almost Famous
• Camelot
• Into the Woods
• Some Like It Hot

Best Lighting Design in a Play

• A Christmas Carol
• A Doll’s House
• Fat Ham
• Leopoldstadt
• Life of Pi

Best Lighting Design in a Musical

• & Juliet
• Into the Woods
• Kimberly Akimbo
• Parade
• Shucked

Best Sound Design of a Play

• A Christmas Carol
• Fat Ham
• The Kite Runner
• Leopoldstadt
• Life of Pi

Best Sound Design of a Musical

• Almost Famous
• A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Story
• Kimberly Akimbo
• Shucked
• Sweeney Todd

Best Choreography

• & Juliet
• KPOP
• New York, New York
• Shucked
• Some Like It Hot

Best Orchestrations

• & Juliet
• Into the Woods
• Kimberly Akimbo
• Parade
• Sweeney Todd