77th Golden Globe Award Nomination Predictions

Tomorrow morning, the Oscar race will officially kick into gear as the nominees for the 77th Golden Globe Awards will be announced. Known as the biggest, drunkest, ethically laxest party of the year, the Globes sit in a precarious position within the Oscar race: while the Globes do tend to accept bribes and bend rules with more ease than any other award show around, they also provide a near-perfect window into what the big voters are looking at. After all, the Globes famously went gaga over Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book last year at a time that seemed insane, and we all know how that turned out. So as we stare down the barrel at the start of the season, I thought I’d break down my predictions for tomorrow, and what exactly I think is about to happen!

Film

Before we officially start breaking down these categories, it is important that we remember the Golden Rules for predicting the Golden Globes. First: the Globes love money and bribery. The more they get schmoozed, the more likely you’ll see something weird pop up in the race (The Tourist in Best Comedy, Get Out is a Comedy, etc.). Second: the Globes are voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press. Basically, British films are near-locks here, thanks to their foreign appeal. Of course, the Foreign Press part of things makes Rule Three so ironic: based on an insane list of rules, no foreign language film can be nominated in a top category. They can be nominated for acting and below the line, but otherwise must appear in Best Foreign Language Film. And so I cannot stress this enough: Parasite is ineligible for Best Drama or Best Comedy. Read that again to yourselves. Then read it again. I just don’t want to have to explain myself again when the Globe nominations are announced tomorrow (note: I’m going to have to). This rule also inexplicably applies to The Farewell, but we’ll talk about that more in a minute.

Now, as for Best Drama. Let’s address the elephant in the room, shall we? Netflix really wants to win an award. So much so they have spent bundles and bundles of money on their two frontrunners, The Irishman and Marriage Story. Bolstered by the fact these films are relatively great, you can expect Martin Scorsese’s crime epic and Noah Baumbach’s intimate family drama to be amongst the Best Drama nominees tomorrow morning, with The Irishman earning nods for Best Actor in Robert De Niro, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and two nominations for Best Supporting Actor (Al Pacino and Joe Pesci), while Marriage Story will earn twin nominations for its leads (Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson), its Supporting Actress (Laura Dern), Noah Baumbach in Director and Screenplay, and Randy Newman’s score. Netflix’s spending should also help carry Jonathan Pryce’s performance as Pope Francis over the line in Best Actor – Drama.

Meanwhile, following the Brit rule, you should expect Sam Mendes’ technical achievement 1917 to elbow its way into the field, particularly in the Best Director and Best Score. And never one to pass up an opportunity to brag, the Globes will want to push Little Women as hard as they can, reminding everyone of their early support for Greta Gerwig and Lady Bird. Women should receive a nomination for Best Score and Best Actress for Saoirse Ronan. Which leaves us with a tight battle between two moneymaking Globe-friendly hits: Joker and Ford v Ferrari. It’s tough to say which film has the better chance at the Best Drama nomination. Both are supported by Best Actor – Drama contenders in Joaquin Phoenix and Christian Bale, respectively (both of whom should get in, rounding out the category). Both should get into the Score category with relative ease. And both are contenders in Best Director and Best Screenplay, too. If I had my druthers, I would give the edge to Ford v Ferrari, as it is the better film. But a billion dollars is nothing to sneeze at. Look for the Globes to round out Best Drama with a nomination for Joker.

For the most part, expect the acting categories to mirror the current Oscar race. Antonio Banderas and Adam Sandler need a nomination here to keep Oscar hopes alive, but it is doubtful that either will come to fruition. Meanwhile, the fifth spot in Best Actress (behind frontrunner Renée Zellweger and perennial lock Charlize Theron) will likely be between Cynthia Erivo in Harriet or Lupita Nyong’o in Us. It is hard to deny that Nyong’o is on a hot streak, but I’m still expecting Erivo to earn a nomination, if only for the Globes to declare themselves a Queenmaker (Erivo has been mostly overlooked this season, and needs this nod for an Oscar chance). And in the Supporting categories, expect Tom Hanks to coast to a nomination for his portrayal of Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, while Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie should join their costar Theron for their work in Bombshell. In fact, while there’s no room in Best Drama for Bombshell to make a play, don’t be surprised it the Fox News whistleblower drama earns a ton of acting nominations – I’m currently predicting John Lithgow to get in as Roger Ailes on a whim. Go big or go home.

As for the Comedy categories, we’re basically looking at the same seven films battling for five slots. You can easily pencil in Jojo Rabbit and Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood – considering the pedigree and love within the Globes for these films, they will dominate the show with just as much force as the Drama contenders. Jojo Rabbit will likely earn a nomination for Roman Griffin Davis, will definitely earn a nomination for Johansson in Supporting Actress, a writing nomination, and a Best Score nomination. Hell, if it’s really popular, look for it in Best Director, too. As for Hollywood, DiCaprio and Pitt are locks for Best Actor – Comedy and Supporting Actor, while Tarantino should earn love in both Director and Screenplay. However, after these two, the Comedy categories tend to get a little murky. Due to the Netflix spending rule, it seems safe to say that Dolemite Is My Name will earn a nomination, and that Eddie Murphy is your frontrunner for Best Actor – Comedy. Then we have a battle for the biggest box office hits between Knives Out and Hustlers. Both were big earners and critical darlings, but at the end of the day, expect Knives Out to earn the Best Comedy nomination (along with Craig in Actor and possibly de Armas in Actress) while Hustlers earns nominations in Best Actress for Constance Wu and Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Lopez (she also may be your frontrunner).

Which leaves us with the “Musical” side of “Musical/Comedy.” By rule of thumb, one musical epic will earn a slot in this category. And we have two in contention. The first is Rocketman, the critically liked extravaganza about the life of Elton John. This would be your safe bet. And yet, lurking just beyond the Heaviside Layer, there’s a pair of eyes waiting to pounce: Cats. You see, despite not being finished (and what we’ve all seen we already hate), Universal has screened a special copy of Cats for the Golden Globes. And the Globes love that sh*t. They eat it up with a spoon. That’s how All The Money In The World became such a big Oscar player a few years ago – they showed it special for the Globes. So despite all the logic and hope we may have for a safe, warm Golden Globe category…expect Cats to earn a Best Musical/Comedy nomination, as well as a nod for Best Original Song for Taylor Swift. At least Rocketman won’t go home empty handed – Taron Edgerton should earn a nomination for Best Actor – Musical/Comedy, while John’s “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” should earn a Best Song nomination as well. And due to its messy nature, you can fill out Best Actress with a list of buzznames – like Beanie Feldstein in Booksmart and Emma Thompson in Late Night. Sure, that works.

As for the rest, things shouldn’t be too crazy. Despite their ineligibility in the top categories, Parasite and The Farewell should fare pretty well. Awkwafina should earn a nomination in Best Actress and Zhou Shuzhen should earn a nomination in Supporting, while Parasite will thrive in Best Foreign Language Film, Best Director for Bong Joon Ho, and Best Screenplay. The Farewell may also make a play for Best Foreign Language Film, but that would be quite the sight to see. Best Director will likely be mostly white and all male, despite the great works of Greta Gerwig, Lulu Wang, and Marielle Heller. The Globes should work overtime to correct the grave injustice of Portrait of a Lady on Fire’s snub at the Oscars with a nomination here. And you can expect Disney to dominate Best Original Song and Best Animated Feature all night long. You can see the full list of film predictions below.

Television

When it comes to television, things are somehow easier and harder to predict. There are so many different routes the HFPA could take, but they always come back to three significant rules: starf*ck every chance you get, hot new shows need nominations, and if a show they liked becomes a hit, take a victory lap. When it comes to Drama, that’s pretty simple. The Globes were on top of Succession before anyone else, and will want to celebrate its newfound hit status. Expect Best Drama Series, two Lead Actor nominations (Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong), and another nod for my Sweet Baby Boy Roman (Kieran Culkin). Meanwhile, the two most talked about new shows of the year are Euphoria and Watchmen. Both shows’ lead actress should earn a slot (Zendaya and Regina King, respectively), but who to choose for the top slot? Watchmen is the better show, and should theoretically be safer. But I’m going with Euphoria – it had more time to peak and just seems more ridiculously awardsy.

Things get tricky as we go down the list. Big Little Lies changed categories from Best Limited Series to Best Drama, bringing its slew of actresses with it. This means Reese Witherspoon is most likely going to have to sit this one out while Kidman takes the show’s sole slot for Best Actress. But don’t feel too bad yet – the show is a lock for Best Supporting Actress for both Laura Dern and Meryl Streep’s campy, beloved performances. And because the category doesn’t feel right without them, expect Game of Thrones and The Crown to round out the Top Five, with The Crown earning nominations for Olivia Colman, Tobias Menzies, and Helena Bonham Carter. Thrones may be able to sneak Peter Dinklage into Best Supporting Actor, but considering its shared between all forms of Supporting Actor on TV, don’t count on it. And what of The Morning Show, you may ask? Expect the Globes to frown upon Apple TV’s lazily constructed drama in the top category, but don’t be surprised if Jennifer Aniston or especially Steve Carell sneak into weak fields. And you can round out Best Actress with Jodie Comer for Killing Eve – she should surpass her costar and last year’s winner Sandra Oh for the final slot.

Comedy tends to make things a little easier. Yes, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and Barry are back, meaning acting nominations for Rachel Brosnahan, Tony Shalhoub, Alex Borstein, Bill Hader, and Henry Winkler should come with them. But make no mistake: Fleabag is coming for nominations. And it is winning them. Expect the year’s most talked-about show to receive nominations for Best Comedy Series, Best Actress for writer/creator Phoebe Waller-Bridge, and maybe even some surprises for Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman (I’m only predicting the first two, but don’t be surprised!). I would also expect Veep to sneak in to round out the category along with Julia Louis-Dreyfus in Best Actress, despite the show’s frequent hit-and-miss quality with the HFPA. And despite a bad day this morning with the Critics Choice Awards, I can’t imagine Russian Doll and Natasha Lyonne missing out in Best Comedy Series and Best Actress – Comedy, especially considering the Globes’ love of “first.”

After your general locks, go through and look up who the biggest stars are in terms of the races. While it is doubtful the Globes will like the critical mixed Black Monday, they love Don Cheadle, so you can pencil him in for a nomination. The same rule can apply for Paul Rudd in the hit new comedy Living With Yourself and Tony winner Ben Platt for the generally-mixed The Politician. The same rule applies for Kirsten Dunst’s On Being A God In Central Flordia, a show that hasn’t received much buzz overall, but certainly worked for Dunst. Oh, and make sure you include The Kominsky Method and Michael Douglas in Best Actor – Comedy. I doubt he’ll miss out this year.

And finally, we have the Miniseries/TV Movie side of things. The Globes always make up an interesting hodgepodge in this regards, as we often see the big hits of the previous year’s Emmys compete with the big hits of next year’s Emmys. This means we will likely see a rematch of Chernobyl vs. When They See Us vs. Fosse/Verdon, along with all their stars. Expect Jared Harris, Stellan Skarsgård, and Emily Watson to represent Chernobyl, Jharrel Jerome, Michael K. Williams, and Niecy Nash to represent Ava DuVernay’s When They See Us, and Sam Rockwell and Michelle Williams to represent Fosse/Verdon. You should also expect this to be the first test of Unbelievable, Netflix’s newest hit miniseries, which should earn a nomination in Best Miniseries and Best Actress for talented up-and-comer Kaitlyn Dever. The rest of the categories will likely be filled out by nominees from the previous Emmys, like Mahershala Ali and Joey King, as well as big stars in classical miniseries, like Helen Mirren in Catherine The Great or Russell Crowe (also as Roger Ailes) in The Loudest Voice. Which brings us to the final nominee for Best Miniseries, which should ultimately be a two-show battle. Will it be The Loudest Voice, the story of the man who created Fox News? Or will it be El Camino, Netflix’s sequel to the beloved Breaking Bad? The Globes were always mixed on Breaking Bad, so I’m going with the former, but you never know! Should they tire of the Fox subject between Bombshell and here, even Crowe may not be safe.

Well, that’s where we are with this year’s Golden Globe predictions! You can see my full list of predictions below, just in time for the nominations tomorrow morning. The 77th Golden Globe nominees will be announced at 8 a.m. on Good Morning America by Dakota Fanning, Susan Kelechi Watson, and Tim Allen, before the actual ceremony is hosted January 5th, 2020 by Ricky Gervais (ugh). See you all here tomorrow at 7:55!

Film

Best Drama

  • 1917
  • The Irishman
  • Joker
  • Marriage Story
  • Little Women

Best Comedy

  • Cats
  • Dolemite Is My Name
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Knives Out
  • Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood

Best Actor in a Drama

  • Christian Bale-Ford v Ferrari
  • Robert De Niro-The Irishman
  • Adam Driver-Marriage Story
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
  • Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

Best Actress in a Drama

  • Cynthia Erivo-Harriet
  • Scarlett Johansson-Marriage Story
  • Saoirse Ronan-Little Women
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renée Zellweger-Judy 

Best Actor in a Comedy

  • Daniel Craig-Knives Out
  • Roman Griffin Davis – Jojo Rabbit
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood
  • Taron Edgerton-Rocketman
  • Eddie Murphy-Dolemite Is My Name

Best Actress in a Comedy

  • Ana de Armas – Knives Out
  • Awkwafina-The Farewell
  • Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
  • Emma Thompson-Late Night
  • Constance Wu – Hustlers

Best Supporting Actor

  • Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
  • John Lithgow-Bombshell
  • Al Pacino-The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

  • Laura Dern-Marriage Story
  • Scarlett Johansson-Jojo Rabbit
  • Nicole Kidman – Bombshell
  • Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers
  • Zhou Shuzhen-The Farewell

Best Director

  • Noah Baumbach-Marriage Story
  • Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
  • Sam Mendes – 1917
  • Martin Scorsese-The Irishman
  • Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood 

Best Screenplay

  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Marriage Story
  • Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood
  • Parasite

Best Original Score

  • 1917
  • Ford v Ferrari
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Joker
  • Marriage Story 

Best Original Song

  • “Beautiful Ghosts” – Cats
  • “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again – Rocketman
  • “Into The Unknown” – Frozen II
  • “Stand Up” – Harriet
  • “Spirit” – The Lion King

Best Animated Feature

  • Frozen 2
  • How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
  • I Lost My Body
  • Missing Link
  • Toy Story 4

Best Foreign Language Feature

  • Atlantics
  • Les Misérables
  • Pain & Glory
  • Parasite
  • Portrait of a Lady On Fire

TV

Best Drama Series

  • Big Little Lies
  • The Crown
  • Euphoria
  • Game of Thrones
  • Succession

Best Comedy Series

  • Barry
  • Fleabag
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Russian Doll
  • Veep

Best Actor in a Drama Series

  • Steve Carell – The Morning Show
  • Brian Cox-Succession
  • Tobias Menzies – The Crown
  • Billy Porter-Pose
  • Jeremy Strong – Succession

Best Actress in a Drama Series

  • Olivia Colman-The Crown
  • Jodie Comer-Killing Eve
  • Nicole Kidman-Big Little Lies
  • Regina King – Watchmen
  • Zendaya – Euphoria

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Don Cheadle-Black Monday
  • Michael Douglas-The Kominsky Method
  • Bill Hader-Barry
  • Ben Platt – The Politician
  • Raul Rudd – Living With Yourself 

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Rachel Brosnahan-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Kirsten Dunst – On Becoming A God In Central Florida
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep
  • Natasha Lyonne – Russian Doll
  • Phoebe Waller-Bridge-Fleabag 

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Mahershala Ali-True Detective
  • Russell Crowe-The Loudest Voice
  • Jared Harris-Chernobyl
  • Jharrel Jerome-When They See Us
  • Sam Rockwell-Fosse/Verdon 

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Kaitlyn Dever-Unbelievable
  • Joey King – The Act
  • Helen Mirren – Catherine The Great
  • Niecy Nash-When They See Us
  • Michelle Williams-Fosse/Verdon

Best Supporting Actor

  • Kieran Culkin – Succession
  • Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Stellan Skarsgard-Chernobyl
  • Michael K. Williams-When They See Us
  • Henry Winkler-Barry

Best Supporting Actress

  • Alex Borstein-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Helena Bonham Carter-The Crown
  • Laura Dern-Big Little Lies
  • Meryl Streep-Big Little Lies
  • Emily Watson – Chernobyl

Best Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Fosse/Verdon
  • Chernobyl
  • The Loudest Voice
  • Unbelievable
  • When They See Us

Add Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *