We are a little under a week away from the Oscars, which means I should probably start actually making predictions. We’ve witnessed the highest grossing Best Picture race in years (most of the films are over $100 million, which is exciting to someone who repeatedly laments the state of the industry), and we’ve seen the Globes, the Guilds, and the Brits all weigh in on who they think should win, where they resoundingly announced, “Yeah, it’s gonna be La La Land.” So that makes my job a little bit easier. However, there’s other questions that go along with that: how many awards will it win, who will win the other awards, and who’s going home empty handed February 26th?
Before we begin, I need to talk about a subject that rarely gets the attention it deserves: Best Foreign Language Film. Now, normally, the Foreign Language category is ignored, or used as a bathroom break during the show. However, there’s an interesting twist this year that has made it the forefront of the Oscar conversations that have been taking place. You see, one of the two frontrunners for the prize, The Salesman, is directed by previous winner Asghar Farhadi, who gave one of the most uplifting speeches in recent memory in 2011 when he won for A Separation. The film is also from Iran, and thanks to the recent travel ban, Farhadi was not expected to be able to attend the Oscars. While the ban has since been overturned, it is still unclear if a new ban will take its place with similar issues, leading Farhadi to make different commitments in Europe that night. The sense of the overwhelming “wronging” that has occurred has given the film (which I have seen, and is very good) an extra, unexpected boost. It’ll come down to the wire between The Salesman and the German heavyweight Toni Erdmann, but I think the need to make a statement will win out in the end. And with the live action and documentary short films also featuring multiple nominees about refugees, immigrants, and racism, expect statements to be made throughout. But more on those later
Now that that’s settled, let’s address the elephant in the room: La La Land. Look, La La Land is going to win, and win big, but the question is “how many?” The final number could be anywhere between six and eleven, with eight being the conservative guess. I’m going to go as high as nine, for the following reasons. Best Picture, Director, Score, Sound Mixing, and Production Design are all locks with no competition. Best Original Song could risk splitting the vote amongst itself, but if we’re being honest, “City of Stars” has it in the bag. The film infamously lost the Cinematography Guild Award to Lion, but I don’t see this happening again, mainly because Lion’s camera work was pretty boring, and I think the Academy will lean towards the sweep. This leaves two more categories where La La Land faces tough competition: Best Actress and Best Editing. For Best Actress, Emma Stone has this award in the bag. The only reason I’m not giving her a big old checkmark is the late critical push that has started for Isabelle Huppert for Elle. Huppert is excellent in the film, and I think she would be a fine winner. But I’m not betting against Stone-I think her performance is better, and she’s won every major award on the way here. It’s closer than it should be, but it’ll still be a landslide for the little redheaded spitfire. Meanwhile, the film is still in a battle for editing with the only other film worth mentioning: Arrival. Arrival is a film that lives and dies on its editing, and the final product is highly impressive. If the Academy wanted to pick one category to properly honor it, this would be the place. However, once again, thanks to the sweep, I just don’t see this happening. I’d love to be proven wrong, but I think the aliens will just have to take a backseat to the pretty people falling in love.
Of course, as interesting as Best Actress will be, it’s nothing compared to Best Actor. While Best Supporting Actress is a done deal-Oscar winner Viola Davis has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?-and Best Supporting Actor seems like a lock for Mahershala Ali (Dev Patel and Jeff Bridges have a strong possibility of pulling off the upset, Ali just seems like the general consensus pick, which I like because he’s great), Actor is one of the closest races I’ve ever seen. The battle is between two great powerhouses, with a third playing upset. The two titans going toe-to-toe are Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea and Denzel Washington for Fences. For most of the season, Affleck has been the frontrunner. In fact, it was supposed to be a given that he would win. However, in the final month of the year, there’s been something of a perfect storm that’s slowed down his march to the Oscar. Scandal, a lack of “playing the game,” and more people seeing the more-publically loved performance of Washington has propelled it to a near-deadlock. With the British and the Globes in Camp Affleck, the Actors in Camp Washington (who is one award away from tying Daniel Day-Lewis’ record), and the critics split. Furthermore, in tight years such as this, it is entirely possible for a third party to enter under the radar and steal the split vote. My gut would say that would be Gosling, especially if La La Land sweeps, but recent polls suggest a rising surge for Viggo Mortensen. Personally, I’m going to predict Washington, as the SAGs are rarely ever wrong, but be prepared for this to be the most nail-biting event of the night.
As for the awards it is nominated for that La La Land WON’T be winning, my predictions are fairly simple. Best Original Screenplay is up in the air after the guilds gave the award to Moonlight, who will be winning the Adapted award here, so I’m going to pick the consensus (and correct) vote and say Manchester by the Sea. Meanwhile, Best Sound Editing will go to the loudest film available, which means that it’s between Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge. Both films are likely, and both films are deserving, but I’m giving the edge to Hacksaw, because God, does the Academy like their war films. And the costumes award will most likely go to Jackie, which had the difficult task of creating Jackie Kennedy’s wardrobe, and will certainly be more impressive to voters than the incredibly pretty dresses and dashing suits of La La Land.
As for the shorts, I have seen all of the animated and live action contenders, and can say that all of the animated shorts are great, and most of the live action shorts are strong as well (I hated Silent Nights). For live action, I would say there’s two films battling it out for the top, with two potential spoilers. If the Academy wants to play things political (which I think they will), then they will choose Ennemis Intérieurs, which is arguably the best of the batch. If they are feeling something lighter, then I would expect La Femme et le TGV, which is the sort of whimsical short that normally wins this award. However, I would also look for the slightly political Sing or shockingly sweet and hysterical Timecode to sneak in for the win, even as I give the edge to Ennemis Intérieurs. As for the animated branch, we are in an odd situation. Technically, there are two Pixar nominees this year. The first is Piper, a photorealistic short about a bird who learns to hunt for his own food. The second is Borrowed Time, a short by two former Pixar employees about a cowboy who must deal with a horrible mistake from his past. It’s decidedly darker than any Pixar short, and it stands out for this reason. These are your two juggernauts, facing off for the prize. Piper is the clear frontrunner, but I’m going to go with my gut and choose Borrowed Time as the winner. However, keep your eyes peeled: Pixar has not won this award in over ten years. Should the Academy continue their grudge with the company’s shorts, a film like Pearl, one of the most adorable films of any genre this year, and which features a stunning use of VR technology, could sneak in for the win. I’ll stick with Borrowed Time for now, but don’t be surprised if I change my mind by Friday or Saturday. And while I have yet to see any of the documentary shorts, I do know one thing: with three films about Syria and the refugees in the running, you can narrow this field down to three. As it is the biggest name of the bunch, I’ll cast my vote for The White Helmets, but keep in mind this may change as of tomorrow.
I will have one more update before the awards this Sunday, so be ready for that final update. However, this is where I sense we are for now, and I hope you can use my knowledge, fears, and everything in between to make your own predictions rock solid. At the very least, you’ll know which films you should bother seeing in the meantime. (I’m two documentaries, three and a half foreign language films, an animated film, and a Costume nominee away from seeing all of the nominees, and I’m going into overtime here)
Best Picture
- Arrival
- Fences
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
- Lion
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
Best Actor
- Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
- Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge
- Ryan Gosling-La La Land
- Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic
- Denzel Washington-Fences
Best Actress
- Isabelle Huppert-Elle
- Ruth Negga-Loving
- Natalie Portman-Jackie
- Emma Stone-La La Land
- Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
- Lucas Hedges-Manchester by the Sea
- Dev Patel-Lion
- Michael Shannon-Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis-Fences
- Naomie Harris-Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman-Lion
- Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
Best Director
- Denis Villeneuve-Arrival
- Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge
- Damien Chazelle-La La Land
- Kenneth Lonergan-Manchester by the Sea
- Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Best Original Screenplay
- Hell or High Water
- La La Land
- The Lobster
- Manchester by the Sea
- 20th Century Women
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Arrival
- Fences
- Hidden Figures
- Lion
- Moonlight
Best Animated Feature
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- My Life as a Zucchini
- The Red Turtle
- Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Feature
- Land of Mine
- A Man Called Ove
- The Salesman
- Tanna
- Toni Erdmann
Best Documentary Feature
- Fire at Sea
- I Am Not Your Negro
- Life, Animated
- O.J.: Made In America
- 13th
Best Documentary Short Film
- Extremis
- 4.1 Miles
- Joe’s Violin
- Watani: My Homeland
- The White Helmets
Best Animated Short Film
- Blind Vaysha
- Borrowed Time
- Pear Cider and Cigarettes
- Pearl
- Piper
Best Live Action Short Film
- Ennemis Intérieurs
- La Femme et le TGV
- Silent Nights
- Sing
- Timecode
Best Original Score
- Jackie
- La La Land
- Lion
- Moonlight
- Passengers
Best Original Song
- Audition (The Fools Who Dream)-La La Land
- Can’t Stop the Feeling-Trolls
- City of Stars-La La Land
- The Empty Chair-Jim: The James Foley Story
- How Far I’ll Go-Moana
Best Sound Editing
- Arrival
- Deepwater Horizon
- Hacksaw Ridge
- La La Land
- Sully
Best Sound Mixing
- Arrival
- Hacksaw Ridge
- La La Land
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
- 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Best Production Design
- Arrival
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Hail, Caesar!
- La La Land
- Passengers
Best Cinematography
- Arrival
- La La Land
- Lion
- Moonlight
- Silence
Best Costume Design
- Allied
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- Jackie
- La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- A Man Called Ove
- Star Trek Beyond
- Suicide Squad
Best Film Editing
- Arrival
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- La La Land
- Moonlight
Best Visual Effects
- Deepwater Horizon
- Doctor Strange
- The Jungle Book
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Oscar Tally
La La Land-9
Fences-2
Moonlight-2
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