The Creative Arts Emmys have come and gone, giving us an indicator of what has love, what isn’t connecting, and what has been snubbed (Kristen Schaal, Sarah Lynn beat Stewie in my heart. Teardrop emoji). So, with this new knowledge, I want to give my Emmy predictions one last dust-off before tomorrow’s big night.
Let’s start by acknowledging the key things we’ve learned from the Creative Emmy Awards. First, at least from a technical point of view, the Emmys really love Stranger Things and Westworld. The show earned five Emmys apiece, and that trend could continue tomorrow, at least on some level. I would say that this confirms their wins for Best Director and Best Supporting Actress, respectively, but who knows? This could allow either show to sneak in and win Best Drama over The Crown. We’ve also learned that, from an acting perspective, they enjoy This Is Us. I would look at it to win Best Leading Actor for Sterling K. Brown and maybe even a win for Chrissy Metz, if they really go in on it. However, I would expect the three major winners to be Things, Westworld, and The Crown.
As for the comedy categories, we are looking at near-total domination by Saturday Night Live. Whether it’s the politics, whether it’s the fact they’re coming off their strongest season in twenty years, or they just have a plethora of talent (it may be all three). Regardless, I would call Kate McKinnon the far and away frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, and despite the fact that Tituss Burgess is the most deserving of Best Supporting Actor, expect it to go to Alec Baldwin,, even if his performance as Donald Trump is already going stale (Anthony Atamanuik’s performance is much better). It should also win the awards for Writing and Best Sketch Variety Show. However, once you eliminate the non-comedy, that leaves several categories wide open. Many people feel that Master of None is the most deserving (I have yet to see it), or that Atlanta is the most creative (that I agree with), but I don’t see those two winning outside of Best Writing and the Best Actor award for Donald Glover (it was great at first, but I swear to God, if Jeffrey Tambor wins again…). However, if the Emmys are known for anything, it’s beating the same dead horse for as long as they can. For this reason, I would expect Veep to win for Best Comedy, Best Director, and of course, Best Leading Actress for Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
Which leads us to the miniseries/TV movie category. This is where my only major change comes into effect. You see, while Feud has been well received and received several nominations, the critics have been pushing for Big Little Lies (which is also good), and it seems the Emmys have been listening. The show won more awards at the Creative Arts Awards, and is the frontrunner for Best Directing. For this reason, I believe the show will beat out Feud in a close battle for Best Miniseries. That being said, the race that everyone will be watching is Nicole Kidman vs. Jessica Lange. Despite the safe money being on Kidman, I’m sticking with my gut reaction that Lange will win. She truly embodied Joan Crawford throughout the season, and her performance in the tenth episode is the stuff of wonders. I’m going to take a major risk and predict that she will beat out an incredibly deep field and take home yet another Emmy. After that, I think they split the field: Alexander Skarsgård takes Best Supporting Actor for Lies, but Judy Davis takes Best Supporting Actress for Feud. And what of Best Actor, which doesn’t have anyone from either of these shows? Well, that’s a bit of an open field. There isn’t a clear frontrunner, due to the depleting love for the started-strong crime saga The Night Of, former winner Benedict Cumberbatch reprised his role one (supposedly) last time, and Ewan McGregor pulled double duty on Fargo. The only way to predict here is through process of elimination. I would eliminate De Niro and Rush right off the bat. I would also eliminate Cumberbatch, who didn’t receive the same level of love as he had in the past. Which leaves Riz Ahmed, John Turturro, and McGregor. Ahmed would definitely drive home the type of statement that the Television Academy wants to make, but I’m putting him at a close #2. You see, Ahmed and Turturro received similar levels of praise, and I can see them splitting the vote. Which leaves us with McGregor. McGregor has been having a great year between several great movie roles and a well-received performance on Fargo. I think these things will add together to award one of the most well-liked and talented actors in the business. I will put my money skeptically on him.
Outside of these major categories, expect John Oliver to win a close battle over host Stephen Colbert, and expect to hear (and love) the phrase “Emmy-winning show RuPaul’s Drag Race.” I will be providing a live blog of tomorrow’s events right here on the site, and you can see my predictions right here, as well as the results of my predictions from the Creative Arts Emmys. The Emmys will be held tomorrow, September 17th on CBS at 8:00pm. Full list of nominees and predictions listed below.
Outstanding Drama Series
- Better Call Saul
- The Crown *
- The Handmaid’s Tale
- House of Cards
- Stranger Things
- This Is Us
- Westworld
Outstanding Comedy Series
- Atlanta
- Black-ish
- Master of None
- Modern Family
- Silicon Valley
- Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
- Veep *
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
- Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
- Jimmy Kimmel Live!
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver *
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
- The Late Late Show with James Corden
- Real Time With Bill Maher
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
- Billy on the Street
- Documentary Now!
- Drunk History
- Portlandia
- Saturday Night Live *
- Tracey Ullman’s Show
Outstanding Limited Series
- Big Little Lies *
- Fargo
- Feud: Bette and Joan
- Genius
- The Night Of
Outstanding Television Movie
- Black Mirror: San Junipero *
- Dolly Parton’s Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of Love
- The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks
- Sherlock: The Lying Detective
- The Wizard of Lies
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
- The Amazing Race
- American Ninja Warrior
- Project Runway
- RuPaul’s Drag Race *
- Top Chef
- The Voice
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- Anthony Anderson-Black-ish
- Aziz Ansari-Master of None
- Zach Galifianakis-Baskets
- Donald Glover-Atlanta *
- William H. Macy-Shameless
- Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- Pamela Adlon-Better Things
- Jane Fonda-Grace and Frankie
- Allison Janney-Mom
- Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep *
- Tracee Ellis Ross-Black-ish
- Lily Tomlin-Grace and Frankie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Sterling K. Brown-This Is Us *
- Anthony Hopkins-Westworld
- Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul
- Matthew Rhys-The Americans
- Live Schreiber-Ray Donovan
- Kevin Spacey-House of Cards
- Milo Ventimiglia-This Is Us
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Viola Davis-How to Get Away with Murder
- Claire Foy-The Crown *
- Elisabeth Moss-The Handmaid’s Tale
- Keri Russell-The Americans
- Evan Rachel Wood-Westworld
- Robin Wright-House of Cards
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie
- Riz Ahmed-The Night Of *
- Benedict Cumberbatch-Sherlock: The Lying Detective
- Robert De Niro-The Wizard of Lies
- Ewan McGregor-Fargo
- Geoffrey Rush-Genius
- John Turturro-The Night Of
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie
- Carrie Coon-Fargo
- Felicity Huffman-American Crime
- Nicole Kidman-Big Little Lies
- Jessica Lange-Feud: Bette and Joan *
- Susan Sarandon-Feud: Bette and Joan
- Reese Withersoon-Big Little Lies
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
- Louie Anderson-Baskets
- Alec Baldwin-Saturday Night Live *
- Tituss Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
- Ty Burrell-Modern Family
- Tony Hale-Veep
- Matt Walsh-Veep
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Vanessa Bayer-Saturday Night Live
- Anna Chlumsky-Veep
- Kathryn Hahn-Transparent
- Leslie Jones-Saturday Night Live
- Judith Light-Transparent
- Kate McKinnon-Saturday Night Live *
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
- Jonathan Banks-Better Call Saul
- David Harbour-Stranger Things
- Ron Cephas Jones-This Is Us
- Michael Kelly-House of Cards
- John Lithgow-The Crown *
- Mandy Patinkin-Homeland
- Jeffrey Wright-Westworld
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Uzo Aduba-Orange Is the New Black
- Millie Bobby Brown-Stranger Things
- Ann Dowd-The Handmaid’s Tale
- Chrissy Metz-This Is Us
- Thandie Newton-Westworld *
- Samira Wiley-The Handmaid’s Tale
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie
- Bill Camp-The Night Of
- Alfred Molina-Feud: Bette and Joan
- Alexander Skarsgård-Big Little Lies *
- David Thewlis-Fargo
- Stanley Tucci-Feud: Bette and Joan
- Michael K. Williams-The Night Of
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie
- Judy Davis-Feud: Bette and Joan *
- Luara Dern-Big Little Lies
- Jackie Hoffman-Feud: Bette and Joan
- Regina King-American Crime
- Michelle Pfeiffer-The Wizard of Lies
- Shailene Woodley-Big Little Lies
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
- “B.A.N.”-Atlanta (Donald Glover) *
- “Intellectual Property”-Silicon Valley (Jamie Babbit)
- “Server Error”-Silicon Valley (Mike Judge)
- “Blurb”-Veep (Morgan Sackett)
- “Justice”-Veep (Dale Stern)
- “Groundbreaking”-Veep (David Mandel)
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
- “Witness”-Better Call Saul (Vince Gilligan)
- “Hyde Park Corner”-The Crown (Stephen Daldry)
- “Offred”-The Handmaid’s Tale (Reed Morano)
- “The Bridge”-The Handmaid’s Tale (Kate Dennis)
- “America First”-Homeland (Lesli Linka Glatter)
- “Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers”-Stranger Things (The Duffer Brothers) *
- “The Bicameral Mind”-Westworld (Jonathan Nolan)
Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series
- Drunk History
- Jimmy Kimmel Live!
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert *
- Saturday Night Live
Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series/TV Movie
- Big Little Lies (Jean-Marc Vallée) *
- Fargo: “The Law of Vacant Places” (Noah Hawley)
- Feud: Bette and Joan: “And The Winner Is… (The Oscars of 1963)” (Ryan Murphy)
- Genius: “Einstein: Chapter One” (Ron Howard)
- The Night Of: “The Art of War” (James Marsh)
- The Night Of: “The Beach” (Steve Zaillian)
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
- “B.A.N.”-Atlanta (Donald Glover)
- “Streets on Lock”-Atlanta (Stephen Glover)
- “Thanksgiving”-Master of None (Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe) *
- “Success Failure”-Silicon Valley (Alec Berg)
- “Georgia”-Veep (Billy Kimball)
- “Groundbreaking”-Veep (David Mandel)
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
- “The Soviet Division”-The Americans (Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg)
- “Chicanery”-Better Call Saul (Gordon Smith)
- “Assassins”-The Crown (Peter Morgan) *
- “Offred”-The Handmaid’s Tale (Bruce Miller)
- “Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers”-Stranger Things (The Duffer Brothers)
- “The Bicameral Mind”-Westworld (Lisa Joy and Jonathan Nolan)
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
- Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
- Late Night with Seth Meyers
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
- Saturday Night Live *
Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series/TV Movie
- Big Little Lies (David E. Kelley)
- Black Mirror: “San Junipero” (Charlie Brooker)
- Fargo: “The Law of Vacant Places” (Noah Hawley)
- Feud: Bette and Joan: “And the Winner Is… (The Oscars of 1963)” (Ryan Murphy) *
- Feud: Bette and Joan: “Pilot” (Jaffe Cohen, Michael Zam, and Ryan Murphy)
- The Night Of: “The Call of the Wild” (Richard Price and Steven Zaillian)
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