Final 90th Academy Award Predictions

It’s finally time, everyone! One day more! Gird your loins, fasten your seatbelts, and all those classic lines: the Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow. I’ve crunched the numbers, I’ve run the data, and I’ve done the maths, and I’m ready to present to you all my final predictions for the 90th Academy Awards!

I’ll be honest: not much has changed since my last round of predictions. Things have mostly stayed the same, with each category containing one major question mark. For example, Best Picture is a done deal for seven nominees: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Get Out, Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name, and The Post. These seven will be nominated, with the race likely falling to Three Billboards, Shape of Water, Lady Bird, and Get Out. The question mark here is “How many nominees will there be?” Will it only be these seven, or will there be eight or nine nominees? If there are, The Big Sick and I, Tonya benefit. My prediction is that there will be eight nominees, with The Big Sick making the cut here, in Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay (forcing out Octavia Spencer and Phantom Thread, respectively). As for Best Actor, the question is “When did the allegations against James Franco come out in terms of voting?” If the articles came out before most voters submitted their ballot, then he might be on the outside looking in. If they came out after, he might show up to the chagrin of several advocates out there. I think that he should be safe, but he won’t win. He will join Gary Oldman, Timothée Chalamet, and Daniel Day-Lewis. The fifth slot is a mystery, but it’ll come down to Denzel Washington and Daniel Kaluuya. Kaluuya has the edge of starring in a Best Picture contender, but I just feel Washington is the smarter, safer pick. Luckily, I don’t have this issue with Best Actress – the quintet of Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Sally Hawkins, and Meryl Streep.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress are a little more challenging. While we have our frontrunners in Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney, and the competition from Willem Dafoe and Laurie Metcalf, but everyone else is up in the air. For Actor, it’s a four-way race for three slots between Armie Hammer, Richard Jenkins, Woody Harrelson, and Christopher Plummer. While Hammer is certainly vulnerable, and it is rare for two actors from the same film to get nominated, I think it will be Plummer on the outside looking in, mainly because the prestige of the whole “I did this in two weeks” thing has started to wear off. I could be wrong. It could be Hammer, or even Harrelson; but I’m standing by my prediction. As for Actress, a similar race is shaking out between Octavia Spencer, Hong Chau, Holly Hunter, and Mary J. Blige. I’d call Blige safe – most groups have recognized her for Mudbound, and she could be the first major nomination for Netflix. This leaves Chau, Hunter, and Spencer. While Chau has certainly had an uphill climb – her film tanked, although she has been praised as the best thing about it – I can’t see Spencer getting nominated. She’s wonderful as always in The Shape of Water, but it’s a minor role in comparison. Expect Chau to get that final slot. As for the Screenplays, the Top Four in each field should be safe, but I’ve made new predictions for the fifth slot: The Big Sick, and the highly beloved Wonder (the box office returns should also help Wonder get into the wide-open Makeup and Hairstyling field).

As for the rest of the categories, things should play out with minor changes: The Shape of Water should walk away with a whopping twelve nominations, getting in everywhere (hell, I’m not even confident in the one category where I didn’t nominate it: Best Sound Mixing). Dunkirk and Darkest Hour should find more love below the line, while Murder on the Orient Express, Baby Driver and Blade Runner 2049 should find, well, any love. Hell, my only big change is Beauty and the Beast in Costume Design, which honestly felt like a mistake on my part for not predicting it earlier. My only question marks are which non-effects driven films sneak into the technical categories (i.e. Get Out in Editing and Sound, Three Billboards for Editing or Score, etc.), and while some should have success, I don’t expect this to be a year that takes any major risks.

The nominees will be announced tomorrow on Good Morning America at 8:30 a.m. EST. We’ll see how this all wraps up before entering the final phase of the season. I’ll have the nominations up in real time, as well as a write-up later in the day. In the meantime, you can check out my updated nominations over here, and I will be trying to get a breakdown of the guild nominees up tonight or tomorrow. I will see you back here tomorrow for the results. The Oscars are coming, people!

Best Picture

  • The Big Sick
  • Call Me By Your Name
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
  • James Franco-The Disaster Artist
  • Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress

  • Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
  • Saorise Ronan-Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep-The Post

Best Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
  • Armie Hammer-Call Me By Your Name
  • Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
  • Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
  • Hong Chau-Downsizing
  • Holly Hunter-The Big Sick
  • Allison Janney-I, Tonya
  • Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird

Best Director

  • Guillermo del Toro-The Shape of Water
  • Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
  • Martin McDonagh-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
  • Jordan Peele-Get Out

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Call Me By Your Name
  • The Disaster Artist
  • Molly’s Game
  • Mudbound 
  • Wonder

Best Animated Film

  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco
  • Ferdinand
  • The Lego Batman Movie
  • Loving Vincent

Best Documentary Feature

  • City of Ghosts
  • Faces Places
  • An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth To Power
  • Jane
  • Strong Island

Best Foreign Language Film

  • A Fantastic Woman
  • Foxtrot
  • In The Fade
  • Loveless
  • The Square

Best Documentary Short

  • 116 Cameras
  • Alone
  • Heroin(e)
  • Ten Meter Tower
  • Traffic Stop

Best Live Action Short

  • DeKalb Elementary
  • Facing Mecca
  • My Nephew Emmett
  • The Silent Child
  • Witnesses

Best Animated Short

  • Dear Basketball
  • Fox and the Whale
  • In a Heartbeat
  • Life Smartphone
  • Lou

Best Original Score

  • Dunkirk
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi 

Best Original Song

  • Evermore-Beauty and the Beast
  • I Don’t Want To Live Forever-Fifty Shades Darker
  • Mystery of Love-Call Me By Your Name
  • Remember Me-Coco
  • This is Me-The Greatest Showman

Best Sound Mixing

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Editing

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi 

Best Production Design

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi

Best Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design

  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Darkest Hour
  • Murder on the Orient Express
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Darkest Hour
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • Wonder

Best Film Editing

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Get Out
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi
  • War of the Planet of the Apes

Total Number of Predicted Nominations:
The Shape of Water – 12
Dunkirk – 8
Blade Runner 2049 – 6
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 6
Call Me By Your Name – 5
Darkest Hour – 5
Get Out – 5
Lady Bird – 5
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 5
Baby Driver – 3
The Big Sick – 3
Mudbound – 3
Phantom Thread – 3
The Post – 3
Coco – 2
The Disaster Artist – 2
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 – 2
I, Tonya – 2
Wonder – 2

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