Final 95th Academy Award Nomination Predictions

It’s finally that time, folks. Tomorrow morning, the Academy will name their nominations for the best films of 2022. And while several categories feel, for the most part, set in stone, there are still plenty of question marks left to fill. And so, it’s time for my final predictions for the 95^th Academy Awards – who’s in, who’s out, and what surprises may be looming.

Let’s start with the big category: Best Picture. As of right now, seven films are all but locked in for a nomination here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, TÁR, Top Gun: Maverick, and our two frontrunners: The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once. These are the films that should dominate the technical categories (we’ll discuss that more in a minute), and there’s almost no chance that they’ll miss out. I’d also say it’s pretty certain that All Quiet on the Western Front will be a major contender, after a dominating showing on the Oscar shortlists and at the BAFTA Awards. Expect Netflix’s surprise underdog to not only earn a Best International Feature, but to appear in Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Sound, Cinematography, and maybe more.

But who slides into those last two slots? Well, here’s where things get interesting. For most of the season, it’s been assumed that Women Talking was a lock and Babylon was in the mix. They were my #9 and #10, respectively. But then something bleak happened: while Babylon had some success in technical categories and with guilds, Women Talking went almost completely blanked. All of its contenders failed to get nominated again, and again, and again. In fact, its only major nomination to date was a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble. Therefore, I have to assume that Talking is set to bomb tomorrow – outside, of course, a Best Screenplay and Best Original Score nomination.

So who’s getting in? Sadly, I have the answer. In the last few weeks, The Whale, perhaps one of the worst awards contenders I’ve ever seen, continued to overperform, thanks to the PGA Awards and the BAFTAs. And with Brendan Fraser in Best Actor, a rising screenplay contender, the Makeup nomination, and Hong Chau’s emergence (more on this later), it’s hard to deny that it should now be in for a Best Picture nomination – easily the worst in over a decade. As for the tenth slot, there’s a handful of contenders, each with a path but none overtly obvious. Triangle of Sadness has a chance. Glass Onion campaigned its heart out. And Black Panther: Wakanda Forever may end up winning Best Supporting Actress. But in the end, I’m sticking with Babylon – it’s competing like last year’s Nightmare Alley, with a ton of technical love that should carry it across the finish line.

Amongst the acting categories, things have mostly settled into 3-4 locks per category, and then a big ole mess to keep things interesting. Best Actor has allowed for one varying slot every show so far, and the Oscars won’t be much different. The only question is, who gets it? Most pundits are saying Paul Mescal, but the rising star has failed to garner any industry support to date. It’s Ethan Hawke in First Reformed all over again. No, in instances like this, you have to look for a big name in a flashy role. This leaves three contenders, but ultimately, really only one – Hugh Jackman’s film bombed, and the Academy would never nominate Adam Sandler (no matter how good he is), leaving Tom Cruise as the likely final name in the lineup.

As for Actress, the only safe names are Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh – everything else is a toss-up between Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis, Ana De Armas, and Michelle Williams. It’s a difficult choice to make, but I’m currently buying Clayton Davis’ theory that Oscar voters end up Kate Winslet-ing her and voting Supporting instead, leaving the remaining actresses to fill out the category. Of course, just because I predict Williams to get more votes in Supporting doesn’t mean I’m ready to bite the bullet. Expect Williams to miss as Supporting Actress is completely remade with Kerry Condon, Angela Bassett, and Jamie Lee Curtis. Everything Everywhere love should give Stephanie Hsu the edge for the fourth slot, while a Best Picture nomination indicates that Hong Chau will likely surprise for the fifth slot over Dolly De Leon, Carey Mulligan, and Jessie Buckley.

And what of Best Supporting Actor? Well, in some ways, this is the easiest category of the lot. Ke Huy Quan is going to win, while Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan are both set-in-stone nominees. I’d also say Eddie Redmayne feels pretty likely – despite theories that he would be this year’s Jared Leto in The Little Things, he’s hit every show he needs to thus far: the Globes, the SAGs, the BAFTAs, etc. Expect his performance as an infamous serial killer to earn him another Oscar nomination. Which leaves one spot remaining – or as I like to call it, “The Fabelmans” slot. One of the two supporting performances in The Fabelmans is getting in here; it’s just a question of which one. Now, Paul Dano has had the best track record all year. And I’d love for my favorite actor to get some love. But ultimately, after last year’s Belfast snafu (with the loving grandparents getting in over the more dynamic parents), I’m inclined to stick with Judd Hirsch. It’s just too good a performance to pass up.

Amongst the other categories, things seem to fall into a logical order. The technical categories look to be dominated by Avatar, Top Gun, Babylon, and Black Panther. Expect a good deal of surprising technical love for Everything Everywhere and Banshees as well – both films feel locked in the Editing category. And there’s a good chance that Elvis is our most nominated film, thanks to its chances in almost every category below the line. But there are still a handful of question marks on the horizon. Can Aftersun knock Triangle of Sadness out of Best Original Screenplay? Without Good Night Oppy in Best Documentary, is there a shocking mix-up on the horizon? And what of RRR? Its Best Picture chances feel over and done with, but can it upset in Best Director? Or perhaps “Naatu Naatu” for Best Song? I’m betting against it, because the Academy loves to snub things like this, but I’m really hoping to be wrong.

So that’s where we are looking ahead toward tomorrow’s nominations. I’ll be back tomorrow with live coverage starting at 8:30 am, live on Good Morning America, courtesy of Riz Ahmed and Allison Williams. You can see my full list of predictions right here. Thank you all for following me during this wild, shocking season. I’ll see you all tomorrow for the craziness.

Best Picture

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• The Whale

Best Actor

• Austin Butler – Elvis
• Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
• Brendan Fraser – The Whale
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Bill Nighy – Living

Best Actress

• Ana De Armas – Blonde
• Cate Blanchett – Tár
• Viola Davis – The Woman King
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Hong Chau – The Whale
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Director

• Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front
• Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Todd Field – TÁR
• Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Best Original Screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

Best Adapted Screenplay

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking
• The Whale

Best Animated Feature

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
• Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
• Turning Red
• Wendell and Wild

Best International Feature

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Argentina, 1985
• Bardo (Or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
• Close
• Decision To Leave

Best Documentary Feature

• All That Breathes
• All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
• Descendant
• Fire of Love
• Retrograde

Best Documentary Short

• American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton
• As Far As They Can Run
• The Flagmakers
• Holding Moses
• 38 At The Garden

Best Animated Short

• The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse
• More Than I Want To Remember
• My Year of Dicks
• New Moon
• An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It

Best Live Action Short

• An Irish Goodbye
• Le Pupille
• Plastic Killer
• The Red Suitcase
• Warsha

Best Original Score

• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• The Fabelmans
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Women Talking

Best Original Song

• “Applause” – Tell It Like A Woman
• “Carolina” – Where The Crawdads Sing
• “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
• “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Top Gun: Maverick

Best Production Design

• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Cinematography

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Empire of Light
• Top Gun: Maverick 

Best Costume Design

• Babylon
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• Harris Goes To Paris
• The Woman King

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Babylon
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Blonde
• The Whale

Best Film Editing

• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Thirteen Lives
• Top Gun: Maverick