Predicting The Golden Globe Nominations

Tomorrow morning, the HFPA will be announcing their nominees for the 74^th Golden Globes. For those unaware, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is the second largest awards show of the season, known for nominating big stars in the hopes they’ll get the chance to drink with famous celebrities under the pretense of awarding the “best of the year.” As you can tell, I’m kind of cynical about it, but I do really love the show. Everyone seems like they’re having a good time, and it’s a decent indicator at what’s going to be big at the Oscars. So I thought I’d offer up a brief list of predictions, just to see how I do.

Let’s start with movies, shall we? The Globes divide the major categories up into two fields: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Musical/Comedy is any film that has singing or a laugh somewhere in it (see previous winners Ray and The Martian). Drama is literally everything else. It’s been a long time since the eventual Best Picture winner wasn’t nominated in at least one of these fields. So, let’s start with Drama. Due to their frontrunner status, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight are locks, and I’d say you can expect Casey Affleck to appear in Best Actor-Drama for the former. Things become more difficult after that. Due to their love of Scorsese, I’d say you can expect a nomination for Silence, as well as a nomination for Andrew Garfield (he’ll be in for either this or Hacksaw Ridge). Arrival also feels likely due to its commercial success (aka $$$$$). So that leaves a fifth spot. It’s obviously going to go to a celebrity film, but that means we have to pick between Hacksaw Ridge and Fences. I’m going to go with the latter, because Denzel Washington is the bigger star, but don’t be surprised if Mel Gibson sneaks into the directing category over Denis Villeneuve or Kenneth Lonergan. As for the acting branches, expect the Actors in a Drama to be your eventual nominees, plus one or two extras who will be replaced once Gosling gets into the mix. So this would mean Washington, Affleck and Garfield are safe. Joel Edgerton has been on the fence waiting to be nominated by someone big all year, and I think this will be the perfect opportunity. Meanwhile, the Globes love a big name, and you can’t get bigger than Tom Hanks. So expect Sully himself to receive a nomination for Best Actor. As for Best Actress, two different frontrunners are from a Musical or Comedy, so this field opens right up for the many talented actresses vying for a spot. Natalie Portman and Ruth Negga are, of course, safe. And I would also assume that if Arrival gets a nomination, it’s a safe bet that Amy Adams will too. This leaves two slots. Many are predicting Isabelle Huppert, who is sweeping the critics branches, to receive a nomination. However, I’m not convinced that there’s enough evidence that the Globes will actually nominated someone foreign (despite being the Hollywood Foreign Press…), so I have her sitting at number six right now. Expect Jessica Chastain and Taraji P. Henson to finally rack up a nomination here, and perhaps earn their only nod of the season.

As for Musical/Comedy, make no mistake: La La Land is going to dominate. Expect Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Score, Song and Screenplay nominations, at the very least. I’d also say that Florence Foster Jenkins is likely-it’s a simple comedy with a bunch of likable people. Expect that to earn nominations for both Meryl Streep and Hugh Grant (who are charming in it, by the way). 20^th Century Women will get a boost thanks to Annette Bening being a Best Actress Frontrunner. That leaves two blank spots to be filled by four films. I think we can rule out Rules Don’t Apply-unless the HFPA is feeling nostalgic for Warren Beatty, the film is a write-off. And despite being one of the best of the year and a laugh-out-loud comedy, I have trouble seeing Deadpool actually receiving a nomination for Best Comedy. This leaves two films to fill the final five: Sing Street, the Weinstein Company’s charming musical-dramedy that could fill this year’s Pride/Salmon Fishing in the Yemen slot, and Hail Caesar!, a comedy from the beginning of the year with star power an incredible talent in front of and behind the camera. In Best Actor in a Comedy, I would expect Gosling’s Nice Guys co-star to benefit from the La La Land nomination by scoring one of his own. I would also expect Don Cheadle’s turn as Miles Davis to earn a nod, despite the film being neither a musical or a comedy. And that final slot will most likely go to Hollywood royalty Warren Beatty. Could Ryan Reynolds sneak in there? Sure, but I don’t see it happening. As for the actresses, the fourth spot will most certainly be Kate Beckinsale’s witty turn in Love and Friendship. That leaves one spot open. I think that spot will go to the funny, fresh, and incredibly talented Hailee Steinfeld for her dazzling work in The Edge of Seventeen. I think she’ll be nominated the same way Stone was for Easy A.

As for the rest, the Supporting categories will play out predictably, with mostly big name actors receiving nominations for a variety of roles. The only surprises will be Janelle Monáe and Kevin Costner, both for Hidden Figures. Best Director will feature the frontrunners-Barry Jenkins and Damien Chazelle-as well as the celebrities-Martin Scorsese, Gibson, and Washington. The most important award for nominations will be Best Screenplay, which often shows which scripts are well-regarded in the industry, and can cement your status with the Academy. Look at Her upsetting in 2013 as a sign. I would say La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight are locks at this point. Fences was written by the late playwright August Wilson, who adapted his own work, so that should earn a nomination. And then there’s the final slot. There are many great screenplays this year, but if I had to pick just one, it would be Arrival. Not only is it getting a nomination for Best Drama, it’s also a very script-heavy work. If that screenplay bombs, the movie bombs. I think Eric Heissner will be rewarded for that movie’s success, and could very well win. Expect that to be the film to round out the category. The Animation branch will be studio driven, as it always is, so expect Disney to land three nominations, Kubo to land one, and a fifth for Sausage Party, just because they’ll hope that Rogen and company will show up to party with them. Speaking of Sausage Party, let’s talk about music. Obviously Disney and La La Land will make appearances here, that’s a given. Then we have the celebrity songs (think of Taylor Swift getting nominated for The Hunger Games), so “Can’t Stop the Feeling” and “Faith” are in (for Timberlake and Wonder, respectively). That leaves one last spot. It has very little chance at the Oscars, but due to the universal love for Alan Menken, I predict the fifth spot for Best Original Song will go to “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party. If that happens, you won’t hear any complaints from me. As for Original Score, the HFPA is actually the most artsy of all awards shows. They were the only group to give a win to All Is Lost in 2013, let alone nominate it. I think that gives Jackie, Arrival, and Silence a shot at a nomination, alongside the more obvious BFG or La La Land. And finally, we have Foreign Language Film. This is actually a better branch than the Academy’s-they don’t have all sorts of stupid rules that keep the best of world cinema from competing. They actually allowed Blue is the Warmest Color to compete in 2013. I believe this means they will allow the two best foreign films of the year to compete, despite their ineligibility at the Oscars: Aquarius and The Handmaiden. After that, the spots will be filled by the three most obvious titles: The Salesman, Elle, and eventual winner Toni Erdmann. Phew. Now that we’ve gotten movies out of the way, let’s take a brief look at television.

The television branch is always fickle. This is where I’ve lost prediction games in the past. You see, the Globes pick three shows they will always like, a couple shows from the previous year that they want to stand behind, and then a whole lotta new shows, just for fun. So this makes predicting their branch difficult. You can see my full list of predictions below, but I’ll do my best to explain my logic a little bit. First, the shows they like. No matter what, the Globes will reward Mr. Robot, Game of Thrones, Transparent, and Veep. Expect multiple appearances for these shows. Now the newbies. The Globes like to mix in shows nobody’s heard of on HBO with network shows with big stars. This gives an edge to This Is Us, Divorce, Westworld, Stranger Things (although people have heard of this one), and Kiefer Sutherland for Designated Survivor. They will also nominated Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom to show that they stand by previous picks, even if they don’t give them another Globe (I can’t tell you how happy I was when Bloom won this last year). And finally, the unspoken workhorse: yes, The People vs. O.J. Simpson will be nominated for, and probably win, all the Golden Globes for television. There’s no stopping their utter dominance. They are Khaleesi coming to Westeros (which is what’s going to win Best Drama Series, if you want to place bets). These are done deals, even if some of my other picks are not.

So that’s your walkthrough of Golden Globe predictions. We’ll find out tomorrow if any of these pan out. I hope you’re all ready for the best open bar in town.

Film

Best Drama

• Arrival
• Fences
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight
• Silence

Best Comedy or Musical

• 20^th Century Women
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land
• Sing Street

Best Leading Actor in a Drama

• Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
• Joel Edgerton-Loving
• Andrew Garfield-Silence
• Tom Hanks-Sully
• Denzel Washington-Fences

Best Leading Actress in a Drama

• Amy Adams-Arrival
• Jessica Chastain-Miss Sloane
• Taraji P. Henson-Hidden Figures
• Ruth Negga-Loving
• Natalie Portman-Jackie

Best Leading Actor in a Comedy or Musical

• Warren Beatty-Rules Don’t Apply
• Don Cheadle-Miles Ahead
• Russell Crowe-The Nice Guys
• Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
• Ryan Gosling-La La Land

Best Leading Actress in a Comedy or Musical

• Kate Beckinsale-Love and Friendship
• Annette Bening-20^th Century Women
• Hailee Steinfeld-The Edge of Seventeen
• Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
• Emma Stone-La La Land

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
• Kevin Costner-Hidden Figures
• Liam Neeson-Silence
• Dev Patel-Lion
• Michael Shannon-Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis-Fences
• Naomie Harris-Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman-Lion
• Janelle Monáe-Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle-La La Land
• Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge
• Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
• Martin Scorsese-Silence
• Denzel Washington-Fences

Best Screenplay

• Arrival
• Fences
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Best Animated Film

• Finding Dory
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• Sausage Party
• Zootopia

Best Original Score

• The BFG
• La La Land
• Jackie
• Arrival
• Silence

Best Original Song

• Can’t Stop The Feeling!-Trolls
• City of Stars-La La Land
• Faith-Sing
• The Great Beyond-Sausage Party
• How Far I’ll Go-Moana

Best Foreign Language Film

• Aquarius
• Elle
• The Handmaiden
• The Salesman
• Toni Erdmann

Television

Best Drama Series

• Game of Thrones
• Robot
• Stranger Things
• This Is Us
• Westworld

Best Musical or Comedy Series

• Atlanta
• Divorce
• The Get Down
• Transparent
• Veep

Best Actor in a Drama Series

• Kyle Chandler-Bloodline
• Anthony Hopkins-Westworld
• Rami Malek- Robot
• Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul
• Kiefer Sutherland-Designated Survivor

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy Series

• Anthony Anderson-black-ish
• Gael Garcia Bernal-Mozart in the Jungle
• Thomas Haden Church-Divorce
• Donald Glover-Atlanta
• Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

• Riz Ahmed-The Night Of
• Bryan Cranston-All the Way
• Cuba Gooding, Jr.-The People vs. O.J. Simpson
• Tom Hiddelston-The Night Manager
• Courtney B. Vance –The People vs. O.J. Simpson

 Best Actress in a Drama Series

• Viola Davis-How to Get Away With Murder
• Taraji P. Henson-Empire
• Keri Russell-The Americans
• Winona Ryder-Stranger Things
• Robin Wright-House of Cards

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Series

• Rachel Bloom-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep
• Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
• Sarah Jessica Parker-Divorce
• Gina Rodriguez-Jane the Virgin

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

• Felicity Huffman-American Crime
• Audra McDonald-Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill
• Sarah Paulson-The People vs. O.J. Simpson
• Lili Taylor-American Crime
• Kerry Washington-Confirmation

Best Supporting Actor

• Sterling K. Brown-The People vs. O.J. Simpson
• Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
• Hugh Laurie-The Night Manager
• John Lithgow-The Crown
• John Travolta-The People vs. O.J. Simpson

Best Supporting Actress

• Uzo Aduba-Orange is the New Black
• Emilia Clarke-Game of Thrones
• Melissa Leo-All the Way
• Judith Light-Transparent
• Olivia Colman-The Night Manager

Best Miniseries/TV Movie

• American Crime
• All the Way
• The Night Of
• The Night Manager
• The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story