Tomorrow is going to be a major day for Oscar predicating. On top of the Cinema Audio Society Award nominations and the Cinematographers’ nominations, we will also be seeing two of the biggest precursor awards: the Producers Guild Awards and the British Academy of Film and Television Awards. Both of these awards tend to indicate support amongst the Oscars, and could be make or break for several films looking for Oscar glory. So, in honor of these awards, I thought I’d offer up some quick predictions, just to kick things off.
Producers Guild Awards
I’ll start with the Producers Guild, because they are both the shortest nominees as well as one of the biggest indicators around. The Producers Guild is made up of the people who fund these fantastic productions, and has made itself essential to the Oscars, for two reasons. This is mainly because both groups use the preferential ballot. Allow me to explain: most of the awards use a simple “majority rules” system. This means that the film or actor who gets the most votes wins outright. However, with the preferential ballot, this is not the case. What happens here is each film is ranked #1-10 (or whatever the number of nominees is for the Oscars). When the results are tabulated, the film with the lowest number of first place votes is eliminated. Those ballots then have their second place votes redistributed to the remaining films, and so on until one film reaches 50%. This means films like The Revenant could, in fact, receive the most votes, but because it was also widely disliked, it would be eliminated for getting all 1s and 8s. This allows a film like Spotlight, which was never disliked, to sneak in with mostly 2s and 3s. Because of the similar systems, the Producers Guild lined up with the Oscar eight and a half out of ten times (they picked Little Miss Sunshine in 2006, The Big Short last year, and had 12 Years a Slave tie with Gravity in 2013). So you can expect the big Hollywood hitters to show up in full force tomorrow.
Obviously, you should assume the three frontrunners to appear tomorrow, especially La La Land and Moonlight, which are a producers’ wet dream. They are such artistic accomplishments, Hollywood won’t be able to not pat themselves on the back. Manchester by the Sea should also follow not too far behind. After that, it’s best to look to the big studios that took a risk. This means films like Arrival, Silence, and Hacksaw Ridge should fair nicely, as should Warner Brothers’ Sully. Then we have the little indie film that could, Hell or High Water. It’s such a great film, and is so beloved in the industry; I don’t see how you can’t look for it to succeed here. This leaves us with two spots. I trust that Fences will get in, if only for the long trek its taken to the big screen. And this leaves us with one spot. The smart money would be on Lion or Loving, or perhaps even Zootopia. But if you ask me (which you obviously are), it’ll be Hidden Figures in that final spot. Why? Because it’s a studio film, it’s a heartwarming blockbuster (it earned $21 million this weekend, which is pretty impressive), and is also one of the best films of the year. I’m going out on a limb and predicting it as the final nominee.
Meanwhile, the animated producers’ nominations should not be too shocking. This is not the category where the big artsy films are nominated, just the best of the big budgets. Disney should wow with its nominations for Zootopia, Moana, and Finding Dory. Sing will also be nominated for being a pleasant film. And then there’s the biggest artistic success of the year, Kubo and the Two Strings. Kubo may not have made much money, but its gorgeous to look at and powerful to watch, and the PGA will tear apart its competition. I’ll have the results tomorrow morning as soon as they’re announced.
- Arrival
- Fences
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
- Silence
- Sully
- Finding Dory
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- Sing
- Zootopia
BAFTA
Most people end up overlooking the British Academy Awards. They think that they don’t have any impact on the American Academy Awards. However, when you realize that there’s a lot of crossover between the British Academy and the American Academy, things take on a whole new meaning. Sure, the Brits prefer something with a little more thought from the American offerings, and they’ll always choose a British film (or European film) if they get the chance (see their overwhelming love for The King’s Speech), but there’s enough overlap to make them a legitimate, respectable organization.
The easiest choice to make is to predict a major sweep for La La Land. The British love two things: throwbacks to yesteryear (see The Artist) and Damien Chazelle, who they nominated for Best Director in 2014 for Whiplash. His film should be a major force, receiving nominations for Best Film, Actor, Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Score, Sound, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. While they aren’t as solid locks, I would also expect love for Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea. While the two films are very specific to America, a type of film that doesn’t always play well with the Brits, they also have a sense of universality that the British respond well to, as they did with Boyhood. Both of these films should appear in their respective categories (particularly Naomie Harris, who will benefit from her British heritage). This leaves two slots. I predict the first slot will go to Silence. The British love to respect epics, and they love to respect Scorsese. The opportunity to do both should do wonders for them, and while I’m currently not predicting the nomination, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Liam Neeson, from the U.K., sneak into the Supporting Actor field. The final nominee will, as always, be a British film. Right now, the only major British contender is Lion, and I think that is the most likely winner of Best British Film, and a major contender for Best Film, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and several other categories.
The acting categories are a bit more difficult to predict. The British will always go for one of their own when push comes to shove, so people who seem out in the Oscar race could make an appearance here just based on their birth country (see: Julie Walters). So while frontrunners like Casey Affleck, Denzel Washington, Emma Stone, Mahershala Ali, and Viola Davis are all safe, people down in the fifth, fourth, and third slots could be in jeopardy. Andrew Garfield gets a boost for being British (although I think his odds are better for Silence than for Hacksaw Ridge, as the British have never been fond of Mel Gibson). Ruth Negga also benefits, as a British actress. Dev Patel could be the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor, as could Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins, and Helen Mirren should surprise everyone as a fifth Best Supporting Actress nominee for Eye in the Sky. Expect British favorites Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep to receive yet another nomination (although Streep could be in danger if Isabelle Huppert and Elle are eligible, which I don’t believe they are). And due to their love of nominating foreign actors for awards, expect Issey Ogata to finally get on the board for his creepy role in Silence.
After that, things should play out as expected, with Nocturnal Animals, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Arrival to play well in the technical categories, but there are two shocks I do think people should watch for. First, I think black British female director Amma Asante will sneak in as the fifth Best Director nominee for her work on A United Kingdom, which has not been released yet in the United States, but has been well-received over in Britain. And due to the popularity of nominating foreign films with great scripts, expect Toni Erdmann to be the fifth nominee for Best Original Screenplay (I’m not sure if Loving and Moonlight will be regarded under WGA rules or Oscar rules, but I’m assuming the former and predicting both for Original).
And finally, I will point out that the nominees for the Rising Star Award have already been announced, and unfortunately I only went one for five, only predicting the new British Spider-Man Tom Holland. The actual nominees include the aforementioned Negga, Lucas Hedges from Manchester by the Sea, Laia Costa from Victoria, and Anya Taylor-Joy (who was great in every film I saw her in, even if I wasn’t fond of the film). Hopefully this doesn’t set a precedent for the nominees overall.
The BAFTA nominations will be announced at 7:35 a.m. London time, which means I’ll be waking up at 2:35 to get these results to you as soon possible.
Best Picture
- La La Land
- Lion
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
- Silence
Best British Film
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- The Light Between Oceans
- Lion
- A United Kingdom
Best Actor
- Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
- Joel Edgerton-Loving
- Andrew Garfield-Silence
- Ryan Gosling-La La Land
- Denzel Washington-Fences
Best Actress
- Amy Adams-Arrival
- Ruth Negga-Loving
- Natalie Portman-Jackie
- Emma Stone-La La Land
- Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
- Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
- Issei Ogata-Silence
- Dev Patel-Lion
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis-Fences
- Naomie Harris-Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman-Lion
- Helen Mirren-Eye In the Sky
- Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
Best Director
- Amma Asante-A United Kingdom
- Damien Chazelle-La La Land
- Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
- Kenneth Lonergan-Manchester by the Sea
- Martin Scorsese-Silence
Best Original Screenplay
- La La Land
- Loving
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
- Toni Erdmann
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Arrival
- Fences
- Lion
- Nocturnal Animals
- Silence
Best Cinematography
- Arrival
- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
- La La Land
- Lion
- Silence
Best Costume Design
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- La La Land
- Nocturnal Animals
- Silence
Best Film Editing
- Arrival
- La La Land
- Lion
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- Hail, Caesar!
- La La Land
- Silence
- Star Trek Beyond
Best Production Design
- The BFG
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- The Handmaiden
- La La Land
- Silence
Best Score
- Arrival
- The BFG
- La La Land
- Lion
- Moonlight
Best Sound
- Arrival
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Hacksaw Ridge
- La La Land
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Visual Effects
- Arrival
- The BFG
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- The Jungle Book
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Documentary
- Before the Flood
- Cameraperson
- Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World
- 13th
- Zero Days
Best Debut of a British Writer, Director or Producer
- Garth Davis-Lion
- Helen Fielding-Bridget Jones’ Baby
- Michael Grandage-Genius
- K. Rowling-Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Rachel Tunnard-Adult Life Skills
Best Animated Film
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- Sing
Best Film Not In The English Language
- Elle
- The Handmaiden
- Julieta
- The Salesman
- Toni Erdmann
Rising Star Award
- Joe Alwyn
- Ruby Barnhill
- Alden Ehrenreich
- Tom Holland (ONLY CORRECT NOMINEE)
- Lewis MacDougall
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